ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2014
HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 311 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
311 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Country Level Diversity of the HIV-1 Pandemic between 1990 and 2015.Journal of virology · 2020Pooled it
- Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study.The Lancet. Microbe · 2024Trial
- Current and historic HIV-1 molecular epidemiology in paediatric and adult population from Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Scientific reports · 2020Trial
- Molecular dating and viral load growth rates suggested that the eclipse phase lasted about a week in HIV-1 infected adults in East Africa and Thailand.PLoS pathogens · 2020Trial
- Delineating the "who-where-how" of persistent HIV epidemics: a 23-year longitudinal genetic network, phylodynamic, and spatial analysis for precise intervention in rural China.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Molecular footprints of a traveling epidemic: CRF01_AE-cluster 5 (01_C5) might spread across Northeast and South China via middle-aged MSM.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Pervasive HIV recombination limits the utility of circulating recombinant form nomenclature.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- HIV-1 Genetic Diversity and Transmitted Resistance to Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitors in Benguela, Angola.Microorganisms · 2026Article
- HIV/AIDS in Conflict-Affected Countries, 2024-2025.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Congo's conflicts, minerals and microbes: planetary health implications.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Viral Simulation Reveals Overestimation Bias in Within-Host Phylodynamic Migration Rate Estimates Under Selection.Molecular biology and evolution · 2026Article
- Links between infrastructure for human movement and early Ebola outbreak trajectories.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Gammaretrovirus Infections in Humans in the Past, Present, and Future: Have We Defeated the Pathogen?Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Biological causes and impacts of rugged tree landscapes in phylodynamic inference.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Phylogenetics and molecular evolution to understand and curb the HIV pandemic.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Combined tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir treatment increases leptin and FABP4 expression in human subcutaneous adipose tissue.Einstein (Sao Paulo, Brazil) · 2026Article
- Health interventions do not cause Malthusian conflict dynamics: Evidence from the expansion of HIV treatment in Africa.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Historical and current spatiotemporal patterns of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus spread.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
251 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.