Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25266818›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2014

A large-scale immuno-epidemiological simulation of influenza A epidemics.

Sarah Lukens, Jay DePasse, Roni Rosenfeld, Elodie Ghedin, Ericka Mochan, Shawn T Brown, John Grefenstette, Donald S Burke, David Swigon, Gilles Clermont

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Evaluation of Parallel Tempering to Accelerate Bayesian Parameter Estimation in Systems Biology.Proceedings. Euromicro International Conference on Parallel, Distributed, and Network-based Processing · 2018
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  17. Crossing the scale from within-host infection dynamics to between-host transmission fitness: a discussion of current assumptions and knowledge.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2015
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Sarah LukensDepartment of Mathematics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. slukens@nd.edu.
Jay DePasse
Roni Rosenfeld
Elodie Ghedin
Ericka Mochan
Shawn T Brown
John Grefenstette
Donald S Burke
David Swigon
Gilles Clermont

Funding

Training, Outreach & Diversity ComponentU54GM088491 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI BROWN, SHAWN T. · 2009 to 2018
$16.7M
Biological Models of Influenza A VirusR01GM083602 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CLERMONT, GILLES · 2007 to 2010
$1.5M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM083602NIGMS NIH HHS R01-GM83602NIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM088491
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAgent based models (ABM) are useful to explore population-level scenarios of disease spread and containment, but typically characterize infected individuals using simplified models of infection and symptoms dynamics. Adding more realistic models of individual infections and symptoms may help to create more realistic population level epidemic dynamics.

methodsUsing an equation-based, host-level mathematical model of influenza A virus infection, we develop a function that expresses the dependence of infectivity and symptoms of an infected individual on initial viral load, age, and viral strain phenotype. We incorporate this response function in a population-scale agent-based model of influenza A epidemic to create a hybrid multiscale modeling framework that reflects both population dynamics and individualized host response to infection.

resultsAt the host level, we estimate parameter ranges using experimental data of H1N1 viral titers and symptoms measured in humans. By linearization of symptoms responses of the host-level model we obtain a map of the parameters of the model that characterizes clinical phenotypes of influenza infection and immune response variability over the population. At the population-level model, we analyze the effect of individualizing viral response in agent-based model by simulating epidemics across Allegheny County, Pennsylvania under both age-specific and age-independent severity assumptions.

conclusionsWe present a framework for multi-scale simulations of influenza epidemics that enables the study of population-level effects of individual differences in infections and symptoms, with minimal additional computational cost compared to the existing population-level simulations.

Indexed as

EpidemicsModels, TheoreticalAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolHumansInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanMiddle AgedPennsylvaniaYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID25266818
PMCPMC4194421

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.