ArticleEuropean journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology2015
Solar radiation and water vapor pressure to forecast chickenpox epidemics.
Article in European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association Between Climatic Factors and Varicella Incidence in Wuxi, East China, 2010-2019: Surveillance Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Associations Between Air Temperature and Daily Varicella Cases - Jinan City, Shandong Province, China, 2019-2021.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Article
- Effects of meteorologic factors and schooling on the seasonality of group A streptococcal pharyngitis.International journal of biometeorology · 2016Article
- Association between the incidence of varicella and meteorological conditions in Jinan, Eastern China, 2012-2014.BMC infectious diseases · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The clear seasonality of varicella infections in temperate regions suggests the influence of meteorologic conditions. However, there are very few data on this association. The aim of this study was to determine the seasonal pattern of varicella infections on the Mediterranean island of Mallorca (Spain), and its association with meteorologic conditions and schooling. Data on the number of cases of varicella were obtained from the Network of Epidemiologic Surveillance, which is composed of primary care physicians who notify varicella cases on a compulsory basis. From 1995 to 2012, varicella cases were correlated to temperature, humidity, rainfall, water vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation using regression and time-series models. The influence of schooling was also analyzed. A total of 68,379 cases of varicella were notified during the study period. Cases occurred all year round, with a peak incidence in June. Varicella cases increased with the decrease in water vapor pressure and/or the increase of solar radiation, 3 and 4 weeks prior to reporting, respectively. An inverse association was also observed between varicella cases and school holidays. Using these variables, the best fitting autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model could predict 95 % of varicella cases. In conclusion, varicella in our region had a clear seasonality, which was mainly determined by solar radiation and water vapor pressure.
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