ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2014
Optimizing the precision of case fatality ratio estimates under the surveillance pyramid approach.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Case-fatality risk of pregnant women with acute viral hepatitis type E: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Pooled it
- Using Laboratory Test Results for Surveillance During a New Outbreak of Acute Hepatitis in 3-Week- to 5-Year-Old Children in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Curaçao: Observational Cohort Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Observational
- Development of influenza-associated disease burden pyramid in Shanghai, China, 2010-2017: a Bayesian modelling study.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Socioeconomic bias in influenza surveillance.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Case Fatality Ratio Estimates for the 2013-2016 West African Ebola Epidemic: Application of Boosted Regression Trees for Imputation.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- How Modelling Can Enhance the Analysis of Imperfect Epidemic Data.Trends in parasitology · 2019Review
- Using Clinical Research Networks to Assess Severity of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Observational
- Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2017Review
- Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2015Review
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In the management of emerging infectious disease epidemics, precise and accurate estimation of severity indices, such as the probability of death after developing symptoms-the symptomatic case fatality ratio (sCFR)-is essential. Estimation of the sCFR may require merging data gathered through different surveillance systems and surveys. Since different surveillance strategies provide different levels of precision and accuracy, there is need for a theory to help investigators select the strategy that maximizes these properties. Here, we study the precision of sCFR estimators that combine data from several levels of the severity pyramid. We derive a formula for the standard error, which helps us find the estimator with the best precision given fixed resources. We further propose rules of thumb for guiding the choice of strategy: For example, should surveillance of a particular severity level be started? Which level should be preferred? We derive a formula for the optimal allocation of resources between chosen surveillance levels and provide a simple approximation that can be used in thinking more heuristically about planning surveillance. We illustrate these concepts with numerical examples corresponding to 3 influenza pandemic scenarios. Finally, we review the equally important issue of accuracy.
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