ArticleParasites & vectors2014
Bionomic response of Aedes aegypti to two future climate change scenarios in far north Queensland, Australia: implications for dengue outbreaks.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- Article
- Projecting long-term excess risks of major infectious diseases associated with future extreme weather events in Thailand.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue Fever Resurgence in Iran: An Integrative Review of Causative Factors and Control Strategies.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Trends and insights in dengue virus research globally: a bibliometric analysis (1995-2023).Journal of translational medicine · 2024Article
- Harnessing artificial intelligence to enhance key surveillance and response measures for arbovirus disease outbreaks: the exemplar of Australia.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Survival-Larval Density Relationships in the Field and Their Implications for Control of Container-DwellingInsects · 2022Article
- Temperature, season, and latitude influence development-related phenotypes of Philippine Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus): Implications for dengue control amidst global warming.Parasites & vectors · 2022Article
- Modeling the effects of Aedes aegypti's larval environment on adult body mass at emergence.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Assessing the Risk of Exotic Mosquito Incursion through an International Seaport, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2021Article
- Review
- Effect of meteorological factors on the seasonal prevalence of dengue vectors in upland hilly and lowland Terai regions of Nepal.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquitoClimatic change · 2018Article
- Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Public Health Responses to and Challenges for the Control of Dengue Transmission in High-Income Countries: Four Case Studies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Review
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5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue viruses are transmitted by anthropophilic mosquitoes and infect approximately 50 million humans annually. To investigate impacts of future climate change on dengue virus transmission, we investigated bionomics of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti.
methodsUsing a dynamic life table simulation model (the Container inhabiting mosquito simulation CIMSiM) and statistically downscaled daily values for future climate, we assessed climate change induced changes to mosquito bionomics. Simulations of Ae. aegypti populations for current (1991-2011) and future climate (2046-2065) were conducted for the city of Cairns, Queensland, the population centre with most dengue virus transmission in Australia. Female mosquito abundance, wet weight, and the extrinsic incubation period for dengue virus in these mosquitoes were estimated for current and future climate (MPI ECHAM 5 model, B1 and A2 emission scenarios).
resultsOverall mosquito abundance is predicted to change, but results were equivocal for different climate change scenarios. Aedes aegypti abundance is predicted to increase under the B1, but decrease under the A2 scenario. Mosquitoes are predicted to have a smaller body mass in a future climate. Shorter extrinsic incubation periods are projected.
conclusionsIt is therefore unclear whether dengue risk would increase or decrease in tropical Australia with climate change. Our findings challenge the prevailing view that a future, warmer climate will lead to larger mosquito populations and a definite increase in dengue transmission. Whilst general predictions can be made about future mosquito borne disease incidence, cautious interpretation is necessary due to interaction between local environment, human behaviour and built environment, dengue virus, and vectors.
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