Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25233989›Full record

ArticleGenetics2014

The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

Iona M MacLeod, Ben J Hayes, Michael E Goddard

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genetics, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.4field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 105 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Recent population history in Swedish cattle breeds.Genetics, selection, evolution : GSE · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Study of Genetic Progress in the Context of Disconnection Between Two Originally Connected Populations.Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Accessible, realistic genome simulation with selection using stdpopsim.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. On ARGs, pedigrees, and genetic relatedness matrices.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Iona M MacLeodFaculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3083, Australia macleodi@unimelb.edu.au.
Ben J HayesDairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3083, Australia BioSciences Research Division, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia Biosciences Research Centre, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia.
Michael E GoddardFaculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia BioSciences Research Division, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia.
University of Melbourne · AULa Trobe University · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as "genomic selection" in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (Ne) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized Ne with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large Ne, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing Ne population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction.

Indexed as

Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseModels, GeneticAlgorithmsAllelesAnimalsComputer SimulationDatasets as TopicGene FrequencyGenetics, PopulationGenetic VariationGenomicsGenotypeHumansLinkage DisequilibriumModels, StatisticalMutationgenomic selectionGenPredhigh-density SNPshared data resourcewhole-genome sequence

Identifiers

PMID25233989
PMCPMC4256779
OpenAlexW2027514193

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.