Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25184209›Full record

Trial reportPloS one2014

A risk prediction model for screening bacteremic patients: a cross sectional study.

Franz Ratzinger, Michel Dedeyan, Matthias Rammerstorfer, Thomas Perkmann, Heinz Burgmann, Athanasios Makristathis, Georg Dorffner, Felix Lötsch, Alexander Blacky, Michael Ramharter

Open access · goldAbstract readClinical Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.8field-weighted citation impact, top 29% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Observational
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  7. Regression with Highly Correlated Predictors: Variable Omission Is Not the Solution.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Franz RatzingerDepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Division of Medical and Chemical Laboratory Diagnostics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Michel DedeyanDepartment of Medicine I, Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Matthias RammerstorferDepartment of Medicine I, Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Thomas PerkmannDepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Division of Medical and Chemical Laboratory Diagnostics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Heinz BurgmannDepartment of Medicine I, Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Athanasios MakristathisDepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Division of Clinical Microbiology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Georg DorffnerSection for Artificial Intelligence, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Felix LötschDepartment of Medicine I, Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Alexander BlackyClinical Institute for Hospital Hygiene, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Michael RamharterDepartment of Medicine I, Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Institut für Tropenmedizin, Universität Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.
Medical University of Vienna · ATUniversity of Tübingen · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBacteraemia is a frequent and severe condition with a high mortality rate. Despite profound knowledge about the pre-test probability of bacteraemia, blood culture analysis often results in low rates of pathogen detection and therefore increasing diagnostic costs. To improve the cost-effectiveness of blood culture sampling, we computed a risk prediction model based on highly standardizable variables, with the ultimate goal to identify via an automated decision support tool patients with very low risk for bacteraemia.

methodsIn this retrospective hospital-wide cohort study evaluating 15,985 patients with suspected bacteraemia, 51 variables were assessed for their diagnostic potency. A derivation cohort (n = 14.699) was used for feature and model selection as well as for cut-off specification. Models were established using the A2DE classifier, a supervised Bayesian classifier. Two internally validated models were further evaluated by a validation cohort (n = 1,286).

resultsThe proportion of neutrophile leukocytes in differential blood count was the best individual variable to predict bacteraemia (ROC-AUC: 0.694). Applying the A2DE classifier, two models, model 1 (20 variables) and model 2 (10 variables) were established with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.767 and 0.759, respectively. In the validation cohort, ROC-AUCs of 0.800 and 0.786 were achieved. Using predefined cut-off points, 16% and 12% of patients were allocated to the low risk group with a negative predictive value of more than 98.8%.

conclusionApplying the proposed models, more than ten percent of patients with suspected blood stream infection were identified having minimal risk for bacteraemia. Based on these data the application of this model as an automated decision support tool for physicians is conceivable leading to a potential increase in the cost-effectiveness of blood culture sampling. External prospective validation of the model's generalizability is needed for further appreciation of the usefulness of this tool.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAdultAgedBacteremiaCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansLeukocyte CountMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID25184209
PMCPMC4153716
OpenAlexW2028338666

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.