Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25181466›Full record

ArticleJournal of biomedical informatics2015

A method for detecting and characterizing outbreaks of infectious disease from clinical reports.

Gregory F Cooper, Ricardo Villamarin, Fu-Chiang Rich Tsui, Nicholas Millett, Jeremy U Espino, Michael M Wagner

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of biomedical informatics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Gregory F CooperReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA. Electronic address: gfc@pitt.edu.
Ricardo VillamarinReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA.
Fu-Chiang Rich TsuiReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA.
Nicholas MillettReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA.
Jeremy U EspinoReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA.
Michael M WagnerReal-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, 5607 Baum Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-3701, USA.

Funding

Decision Making in BiosurveillanceR01LM009132 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI WAGNER, MICHAEL MATTHEW · 2008 to 2011
$1.9M
Probabilistic Disease SurveillanceR01LM011370 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI WAGNER, MICHAEL MATTHEW · 2013 to 2015
$1.7M
NLM NIH HHS R01 LM009132NLM NIH HHS R01-LM009132NLM NIH HHS R01 LM011370NLM NIH HHS R01-LM011370PHITPO CDC HHS P01 HK000086PHITPO CDC HHS P01-HK000086
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Outbreaks of infectious disease can pose a significant threat to human health. Thus, detecting and characterizing outbreaks quickly and accurately remains an important problem. This paper describes a Bayesian framework that links clinical diagnosis of individuals in a population to epidemiological modeling of disease outbreaks in the population. Computer-based diagnosis of individuals who seek healthcare is used to guide the search for epidemiological models of population disease that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. We applied this framework to develop a system that detects influenza outbreaks from emergency department (ED) reports. The system diagnoses influenza in individuals probabilistically from evidence in ED reports that are extracted using natural language processing. These diagnoses guide the search for epidemiological models of influenza that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. Those epidemiological models with a high posterior probability determine the most likely outbreaks of specific diseases; the models are also used to characterize properties of an outbreak, such as its expected peak day and estimated size. We evaluated the method using both simulated data and data from a real influenza outbreak. The results provide support that the approach can detect and characterize outbreaks early and well enough to be valuable. We describe several extensions to the approach that appear promising.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksAlgorithmsBayes TheoremCommunicable Disease ControlCommunicable DiseasesComputer SimulationElectronic Health RecordsEmergency Medical ServicesHumansIncidenceInfectious Disease MedicineInfluenza, HumanModels, StatisticalPennsylvaniaPopulation SurveillanceProbabilityBayesian modelingClinical reportsInfectious diseaseOutbreak characterizationOutbreak detection

Identifiers

PMID25181466
PMCPMC4441330

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.