ArticleThe International journal on drug policy2015
Probability and predictors of the cannabis gateway effect: a national study.
Article in The International journal on drug policy, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
70 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 171 citations in OpenAlex.
- How adolescent cannabis use reshapes the developing brain - a systematic review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Pooled it
- Effect of recreational cannabis use on bone mineral density: a systematic review.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024Pooled it
- Questioning assumptions about the abuse potential of medical cannabis and cannabinoids: narrative review and commentary.BJPsych bulletin · 2026Review
- Combined Impact of Cannabinoids and Cocaine on Outcomes of Trauma Patients.Surgery in practice and science · 2026Article
- Mapping the Interplay Between Childhood Trauma, Substance Use, and Psychopathology in Early Psychosis: A Network Analysis Approach.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2026Article
- Cannabis use experience of patients with chronic disease after revisions to the cannabis legalization regulations: a mixed-methods study in primary care settings in the south of Thailand.Primary health care research & development · 2025Article
- The gateway effect of cigarette, e-cigarette, cigar, and alcohol use vs. Cannabis use.Addictive behaviors · 2025Article
- Mood instability as a transdiagnostic predictor of cannabis use in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and depression: A natural language processing analysis of electronic health records from 13,025 adolescents.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025Article
- The relationship between cannabis and cardiovascular disease: clearing the haze.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2025Review
- Racial Disparities in Patterns and Modes of Current and Daily Marijuana Use among Adults Living with Children.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2025Article
- Effects of Cannabis Exposure on Adolescent Health and Development: A Narrative Review.Current drug research reviews · 2025Review
- Risk Factors and Onset of Illicit Drug Use among Filipino Youth: A Cross-sectional Analysis of Sociodemographic and Environmental Influences.Acta medica Philippina · 2025Article
- Changes in cannabis use post decriminalisation in mental health care users in South Africa.The South African journal of psychiatry : SAJP : the journal of the Society of Psychiatrists of South Africa · 2025Article
- Cannabis Vaping Is Associated With Past 30-Day Suicide Attempts and Suicidal Ideation Among Adolescents in a Psychiatric Inpatient Setting.JAACAP open · 2024Article
- An examination of cannabis use motives among couples with intimate partner violence and alcohol use disorder.The American journal on addictions · 2024Article
- Perspectives regarding cannabis use: Results from a qualitative study of individuals engaged in substance use treatment in Georgia and Connecticut.Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2024Article
- Review
- Cannabis use and dependence among festival attendees: results from the French OCTOPUS survey.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Patterns of cannabis use, perception of harm, and perceived impact of legislative change in an online sample of young adults from Lebanon: insight on recreational users versus dual motive users.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
- Chronic exposure to inhaled vaporized cannabis high in ΔFrontiers in pharmacology · 2024Article
10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWhile several studies have shown a high association between cannabis use and use of other illicit drugs, the predictors of progression from cannabis to other illicit drugs remain largely unknown. This study aims to estimate the cumulative probability of progression to illicit drug use among individuals with lifetime history of cannabis use, and to identify predictors of progression from cannabis use to other illicit drugs use.
methodsAnalyses were conducted on the sub-sample of participants in Wave 1 of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who started cannabis use before using any other drug (n=6624). Estimated projections of the cumulative probability of progression from cannabis use to use of any other illegal drug use in the general population were obtained by the standard actuarial method. Univariate and multivariable survival analyses with time-varying covariates were implemented to identify predictors of progression to any drug use.
resultsLifetime cumulative probability estimates indicated that 44.7% of individuals with lifetime cannabis use progressed to other illicit drug use at some time in their lives. Several sociodemographic characteristics, internalizing and externalizing psychiatric disorders and indicators of substance use severity predicted progression from cannabis use to other illicit drugs use.
conclusionA large proportion of individuals who use cannabis go on to use other illegal drugs. The increased risk of progression from cannabis use to other illicit drugs use among individuals with mental disorders underscores the importance of considering the benefits and adverse effects of changes in cannabis regulations and of developing prevention and treatment strategies directed at curtailing cannabis use in these populations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.