Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25165604›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2014

Fixation in finite populations evolving in fluctuating environments.

Peter Ashcroft, Philipp M Altrock, Tobias Galla

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Fixation Probabilities of Mutant Alleles in an Ecological Context.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Collective cooperative intelligence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  4. Cultural tightness and resilience against environmental shocks in nonindustrial societies.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Evolution in fluctuating environments: A generic modular approach.Evolution; international journal of organic evolution · 2022
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Evolutionary dynamics with game transitions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Bet-hedging strategies in expanding populations.PLoS computational biology · 2019
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Peter AshcroftTheoretical Physics, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.
Philipp M AltrockProgram for Evolutionary Dynamics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
Tobias GallaTheoretical Physics, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK tobias.galla@manchester.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The environment in which a population evolves can have a crucial impact on selection. We study evolutionary dynamics in finite populations of fixed size in a changing environment. The population dynamics are driven by birth and death events. The rates of these events may vary in time depending on the state of the environment, which follows an independent Markov process. We develop a general theory for the fixation probability of a mutant in a population of wild-types, and for mean unconditional and conditional fixation times. We apply our theory to evolutionary games for which the payoff structure varies in time. The mutant can exploit the environmental noise; a dynamic environment that switches between two states can lead to a probability of fixation that is higher than in any of the individual environmental states. We provide an intuitive interpretation of this surprising effect. We also investigate stationary distributions when mutations are present in the dynamics. In this regime, we find two approximations of the stationary measure. One works well for rapid switching, the other for slowly fluctuating environments.

Indexed as

Models, Theoreticalevolutionary dynamicsfluctuating environmentsstochastic processes

Identifiers

PMID25165604
PMCPMC4191092

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.