Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25111058›Full record

ArticlePloS one2014

Impact of male circumcision on the HIV epidemic in Papua New Guinea: a country with extensive foreskin cutting practices.

Richard T Gray, Andrew Vallely, David P Wilson, John Kaldor, David MacLaren, Angela Kelly-Hanku, Peter Siba, John M Murray, Male Circumcision Acceptability and Impact Study (MCAIS) team

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
0.9field-weighted citation impact, top 25% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Richard T GrayThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Andrew VallelyThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Sexual and Reproductive Health Unit, Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea.
David P WilsonThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
John KaldorThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
David MacLarenSchool of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.
Angela Kelly-HankuSexual and Reproductive Health Unit, Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea; International HIV Research Group, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Peter SibaSexual and Reproductive Health Unit, Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea.
John M MurraySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Male Circumcision Acceptability and Impact Study (MCAIS) team
New South Wales Institute of Psychiatry · AUPapua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research · PGUNSW Sydney · AUJames Cook University · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The degree to which adult medical male circumcision (MC) programs can reduce new HIV infections in a moderate HIV prevalence country like Papua New Guinea (PNG) are uncertain especially given the widespread prevalence of longitudinal foreskin cuts among adult males. We estimated the likely impact of a medical MC intervention in PNG using a mathematical model of HIV transmission. The model was age-structured and incorporated separate components for sex, rural/urban, men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Country-specific data of the prevalence of foreskin cuts, sexually transmitted infections, condom usage, and the acceptability of MC were obtained by our group through related studies. If longitudinal foreskin cutting has a protective efficacy of 20% compared to 60% for MC, then providing MC to 20% of uncut males from 2012 would require 376,000 procedures, avert 7,900 HIV infections by 2032, and require 143 MC per averted infection. Targeting uncut urban youths would achieve the most cost effective returns of 54 MC per HIV infection averted. These numbers of MC required to avert an HIV infection change little even with coverage up to 80% of men. The greater the protective efficacy of longitudinal foreskin cuts against HIV acquisition, the less impact MC interventions will have. Dependent on this efficacy, increasing condom use could have a much greater impact with a 10 percentage point increase averting 18,400 infections over this same period. MC programs could be effective in reducing HIV infections in PNG, particularly in high prevalence populations. However the overall impact is highly dependent on the protective efficacy of existing longitudinal foreskin cutting in preventing HIV.

Indexed as

ForeskinModels, StatisticalAdolescentAdultChildChild, PreschoolCircumcision, MaleCondomsEpidemicsFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID25111058
PMCPMC4128698
OpenAlexW2040941069

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.