Trial reportPloS one2014
Natural history of anal dysplasia in an HIV-infected clinical care cohort: estimates using multi-state Markov modeling.
Trial report in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.
- Strengthening anal cancer prevention in people with HIV without immediate HRA access-correspondence.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2025Article
- Clinical Predictors and Outcomes of Invasive Anal Cancer for People With HIV in an Inception Cohort.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Topical Protease Inhibitor Increases Tumor-Free and Overall Survival in CD4-Depleted Mouse Model of Anal Cancer.Viruses · 2024Article
- Structured Literature Review to Identify Human Papillomavirus's Natural History Parameters for Dynamic Population Models of Vaccine Impacts.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Review
- Anal Dysplasia Screening in People Living with HIV: Long-Term Follow-Up in a Large Cohort from Northwest Spain.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2024Article
- A nationwide longitudinal study on risk factors for progression of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 to anal cancer.International journal of cancer · 2022Article
- Update on the Epidemiological Features and Clinical Implications of Human Papillomavirus Infection (HPV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Coinfection.Microorganisms · 2022Review
- Progression of Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia to Cancer Is Low with Anoscopy Surveillance and Treatment.Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract · 2022Article
- Association of Immunosuppression and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viremia With Anal Cancer Risk in Persons Living With HIV in the United States and Canada.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Risk of Invasive Anal Cancer in HIV-Infected Patients With High-Grade Anal Dysplasia: A Population-Based Cohort Study.Diseases of the colon and rectum · 2019Article
- The Accuracy of Anal Swab-Based Tests to Detect High-Grade Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia in HIV-Infected Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Open forum infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Disparities in the Clinical Evolution of Anal Neoplasia in an HIV-Infected Cohort.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2018Article
- Histopathologic and Cytologic Follow-Up in High Risk Male Patients with Unsatisfactory Anal Cytology.Pathology research international · 2017Article
- Anal Dysplasia Screening and Treatment in a Southern Human Immunodeficiency Virus Clinic.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2016Article
- Effects of Referral Bias on Estimates of Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia Progression and Regression Rates in a 3-State Markov Model.Medicine · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectives(1) To model the natural history of anal neoplasia in HIV-infected patients using a 3-state Markov model of anal cancer pathogenesis, adjusting for cytology misclassification; and (2) to estimate the effects of selected time-varying covariates on transition probabilities.
designA retrospective cytology-based inception screening cohort of HIV-infected adults was analyzed using a 3-state Markov model of clinical pathogenesis of anal neoplasia.
methodsLongitudinally ascertained cytology categories were adjusted for misclassification using estimates of cytology accuracy derived from the study cohort. Time-varying covariate effects were estimated as hazard ratios.
results(1) There was a moderate to high probability of regression of the high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) state (27-62%) at 2 years after initial cytology screening; (2) the probability of developing invasive anal cancer (IAC) during the first 2 years after a baseline HSIL cytology is low (1.9-2.8%); (3) infrared coagulation (IRC) ablation of HSIL lesions is associated with a 2.2-4.2 fold increased probability of regression to <HSIL; and (4) antiretroviral therapy, suppressed HIV plasma viral load, and CD4 ≥350/mm3 are each associated with reduced probability of progression from <HSIL to HSIL.
conclusionsThe finding of moderate to high rates of regression of the HSIL state accompanied by low rates of progression to IAC should inform both screening and precursor treatment guideline development. There appears to be a consistent and robust beneficial effect of antiretroviral therapy, suppressed viral load, and higher CD4 on the transition from the <HSIL state to the HSIL state.
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Registered trials
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