Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25097264›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014

Predicting the outcomes of treatment to eradicate the latent reservoir for HIV-1.

Alison L Hill, Daniel I S Rosenbloom, Feng Fu, Martin A Nowak, Robert F Siliciano

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 179 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
179citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

179 citing papers in PubMed.

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  16. Modelling HIV-1 control and remission.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2024
    Review
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119 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Alison L HillProgram for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Mathematics, and Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, and Biophysics Program and Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; alhill@fas.harvard.edu.
Daniel I S RosenbloomProgram for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Mathematics, and Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY 10032;ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-3907
Feng FuInstitute of Integrative Biology, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; and.
Martin A NowakProgram for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Mathematics, and Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, and.
Robert F SilicianoDepartment of Medicine and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21205.

Funding

Using NK Cells to eliminate the latent HIV reservoirU19AI096113 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI LUCIW, PAUL · 2011 to 2015
$39.5M
Viral reservoirs and sanctuaries in HAART - treated patients: role and mechanismsU19AI096109 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI PALMER, SARAH ELIZABETH · 2011 to 2015
$29.5M
Quantification and prediction of treatment efficacy for HIV cure strategiesDP5OD019851 · OD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI HILL, ALISON LYNN · 2014 to 2018
$2.1M
Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNIAID NIH HHS 1U19AI096109NIAID NIH HHS AI096113NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI096109NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI096113NIH HHS DP5 OD019851
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Massive research efforts are now underway to develop a cure for HIV infection, allowing patients to discontinue lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). New latency-reversing agents (LRAs) may be able to purge the persistent reservoir of latent virus in resting memory CD4(+) T cells, but the degree of reservoir reduction needed for cure remains unknown. Here we use a stochastic model of infection dynamics to estimate the efficacy of LRA needed to prevent viral rebound after ART interruption. We incorporate clinical data to estimate population-level parameter distributions and outcomes. Our findings suggest that ∼2,000-fold reductions are required to permit a majority of patients to interrupt ART for 1 y without rebound and that rebound may occur suddenly after multiple years. Greater than 10,000-fold reductions may be required to prevent rebound altogether. Our results predict large variation in rebound times following LRA therapy, which will complicate clinical management. This model provides benchmarks for moving LRAs from the laboratory to the clinic and can aid in the design and interpretation of clinical trials. These results also apply to other interventions to reduce the latent reservoir and can explain the observed return of viremia after months of apparent cure in recent bone marrow transplant recipients and an immediately-treated neonate.

Indexed as

Disease EradicationDisease ReservoirsHIV-1HIV InfectionsHumansModels, BiologicalStochastic ProcessesTime FactorsTreatment OutcomeUncertaintyHIV cureHIV latent reservoirviral dynamics

Identifiers

PMID25097264
PMCPMC4169952

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.