Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25084132›Full record

ArticleOsteoarthritis and cartilage2014

Current and future impact of osteoarthritis on health care: a population-based study with projections to year 2032.

A Turkiewicz, I F Petersson, J Björk, G Hawker, L E Dahlberg, L S Lohmander, M Englund

3 registry-linked trialsAbstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoarthritis and cartilage, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 232 papers, 13 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
232citing papers in PubMed, 13 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03715764 nacompletednot on this map

Physical Therapist as Primary Assessor for Patients With Knee Pain in Primary Health Care. A Randomized Controlled Study

TypeinterventionalSponsorVastra Gotaland RegionRan2013 to 2017Enrolled69ConditionsKnee OsteoarthritisArmsPhysical therapy assessment, Physician assessment
NCT03822533 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2019, after this paper: background citation

A Cost-efficiency Analysis of Physiotherapist or Physicians as Primary Assessors for Patients With Knee Pain in Primary Care

TypeinterventionalSponsorVastra Gotaland RegionRan2019 to 2022Enrolled363ConditionsOsteoarthritis, KneeArmsPhysiotherapist as primary assessor, Physician as primary assessor
NCT06854237 active not recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Prevalence and Characteristics of Widespread Pain in People With Knee Osteoarthritis

TypeobservationalSponsorVastra Gotaland RegionRan2025 to 2026Enrolled114ConditionsKnee Osteoarthritis, Widespread Chronic Pain
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

232 citing papers in PubMed, 13 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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172 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

A TurkiewiczDepartment of Orthopedics, Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Epidemiology and Register Centre South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: aleksandra.turkiewicz@med.lu.se.
I F PeterssonDepartment of Orthopedics, Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Epidemiology and Register Centre South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: ingemar.petersson@med.lu.se.
J BjörkDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; R&D Centre Skåne, Lund University Hospital, Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: jonas.bjork@skane.se.
G HawkerWomen's College Hospital and the Institute for Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: gillian.hawker@wchospital.ca.
L E DahlbergDepartment of Orthopedics, Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: leif.dahlberg@med.lu.se.
L S LohmanderDepartment of Orthopedics, Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Research Unit for Musculoskeletal Function and Physiotherapy, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark; Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark. Electronic address: stefan.lohmander@med.lu.se.
M EnglundDepartment of Orthopedics, Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Epidemiology and Register Centre South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; Clinical Epidemiology Research and Training Unit, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: martin.englund@med.lu.se.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the current and future (to year 2032) impact of osteoarthritis (OA) health care seeking.

methodPopulation-based study with prospectively ascertained data from the Skåne Healthcare Register (SHR), Sweden, encompassing more than 15 million person-years of primary and specialist outpatient care and hospitalizations. We studied all Skåne region residents aged ≥45 by the end of 2012 (n = 531, 254) and determined the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed OA defined as the proportion of the prevalent population that had received a diagnosis of OA of the knee, hip, hand, or other locations except the spine between 1999 and 2012. We projected consultation prevalence of OA until year 2032 using Statistics Sweden's (SCB) projected age and sex structure and prevalence of overweight and obesity.

resultsIn 2012 the proportion of population aged ≥45 with any doctor-diagnosed OA was 26.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.5-26.8) (men 22.4%, women 30.5%). The most common locations were knee (13.8%), hip (5.8%) and hand (3.1%). Of the prevalent cases 26.8% had OA in multiple joints. By the year 2032, the proportion of the population aged ≥45 with doctor-diagnosed OA is estimated to increase from 26.6% to 29.5% (any location), from 13.8% to 15.7% for the knee and 5.8-6.9% for the hip.

conclusionIn 2032, at least an additional 26,000 individuals per 1 million population aged ≥45 years are estimated to have consulted a physician for OA in a peripheral joint compared to 2012. These findings underscore the need to address modifiable risk factors and develop new effective OA treatments.

Indexed as

ForecastingPopulation SurveillanceAgedAged, 80 and overDelivery of Health CareFemaleGlobal HealthHumansMaleMiddle AgedOsteoarthritisPrevalenceProspective StudiesRisk FactorsEpidemiologyKnee osteoarthritisOsteoarthritis

Identifiers

PMID25084132

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.