ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2014
Risk of dengue for tourists and teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review
- Positivity of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika infections in women in Northeast Brazil post-Zika epidemic.Pathogens and global health · 2023Article
- An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- A dynamic, ensemble learning approach to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil using weather and population susceptibility cycles.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Article
- Ensemble forecast and parameter inference of childhood diarrhea in Chobe District, Botswana.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Evaluation of mechanistic and statistical methods in forecasting influenza-like illness.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2018Article
- Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- The Challenges Imposed by Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya to Brazil.Frontiers in immunology · 2018Review
- Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation.Statistics in medicine · 2017Article
- Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
- Fatal case of co-infection with dengue virus andJMM case reports · 2016Article
- The influence of larval competition on Brazilian Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.Parasites & vectors · 2016Article
- Spatial and temporal country-wide survey of temephos resistance in Brazilian populations of Aedes aegypti.Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz · 2016Article
- Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.eLife · 2016Article
- Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework.PLoS computational biology · 2015Article
- Dengue: update on epidemiology.Current infectious disease reports · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThis year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL
findingsWe used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.
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