Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25053392›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2014

The geographic distribution of onchocerciasis in the 20 participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: (2) pre-control endemicity levels and estimated number infected.

Honorat G M Zouré, Mounkaila Noma, Afework H Tekle, Uche V Amazigo, Peter J Diggle, Emanuele Giorgi, Jan H F Remme

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 99 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
99citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
7.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

99 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 184 citations in OpenAlex.

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39 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Honorat G M Zouré
Mounkaila Noma
Afework H Tekle
Uche V Amazigo
Peter J Diggle
Emanuele Giorgi
Jan H F RemmeConsultant, 120 Rue des Campanules, Ornex 01210, France. hansremme@gmail.com.
Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign · BFLancaster University · GBPharnext (France) · FRUniversity of Liverpool · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council G0902153
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected.

methodsA model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages.

resultsThe generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km2 with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment.

conclusionsThe map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels.

Indexed as

AfricaAnimalsDipteraDisease VectorsEndemic DiseasesEpidemiologic MethodsFilaricidesHumansIvermectinOnchocerciasisPrevalenceFilaricidesIvermectin

Identifiers

PMID25053392
PMCPMC4222889
OpenAlexW2121108393

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.