ArticleHealth services research2015
Surge capacity: analysis of census fluctuations to estimate the number of intensive care unit beds needed.
Article in Health services research, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Saudi Medical Appointments and Referrals Center (SMARC) Performance Dynamic: A Comparative National Analysis of 2023-2024 Against Baseline Metrics.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Critical care bed growth in the United States. A comparison of regional and national trends.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo compare methods of characterizing intensive care unit (ICU) bed use and estimate the number of beds needed. STUDY
settingThree geographic regions in the Canadian province of Manitoba. STUDY
designRetrospective analysis of population-based data from April 1, 2000, to March 31, 2007.
methodsWe compared three methods to estimate ICU bed requirements. Method 1 analyzed yearly patient-days. Methods 2 and 3 analyzed day-to-day fluctuations in patient census; these differed by whether each hospital needed to independently fulfill its own demand or this resource was shared across hospitals. PRINCIPAL
findingsThree main findings were as follows: (1) estimates based on yearly average usage generally underestimated the number of beds needed compared to analysis of fluctuations in census, especially in the smaller regions where underestimation ranged 25-58 percent; (2) 4-29 percent fewer beds were needed if it was acceptable for demand to exceed supply 18 days/year, versus 4 days/year; and (3) 13-36 percent fewer beds were needed if hospitals within a region could effectively share ICU beds.
conclusionsCompared to using yearly averages, analyzing day-to-day fluctuations in patient census gives a more accurate picture of ICU bed use. Failing to provide adequate "surge capacity" can lead to demand that frequently and severely exceeds supply.
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