ArticlePloS one2014
Validation of the modes of transmission model as a tool to prioritize HIV prevention targets: a comparative modelling analysis.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling Methods of Economic Evaluations of HIV Testing Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023Pooled it
- The HIV Modes of Transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2014Pooled it
- Population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa: collation and synthesis of survey data, 2010-23.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- A sub-national HIV epidemic appraisal in Kenya: a new approach for identifying priority geographies, populations and programmes for optimizing coverage for HIV prevention.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Estimating the epidemic consequences of HIV prevention gaps among key populations.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Reductions in HIV incidence are likely to increase the importance of key population programmes for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- HIV Modes of Transmission in Sudan in 2014.International journal of health policy and management · 2020Article
- HIV treatment response among female sex workers participating in a treatment as prevention demonstration project in Cotonou, Benin.PloS one · 2020Article
- Evolving HIV epidemics: the urgent need to refocus on populations with risk.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2019Review
- Sex Worker Community-led Interventions Interrupt Sexually Transmitted Infection/Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission and Improve Human Immunodeficiency Virus Cascade Outcomes: A Program Review from South India.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2019Article
- HIV-related data among key populations to inform evidence-based responses: protocol of a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2018Article
- The importance of local epidemic conditions in monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control in Kenya: a modelling study.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Genetic Cluster Analysis for HIV Prevention.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2018Review
- The contributions and future direction of Program Science in HIV/STI prevention.Emerging themes in epidemiology · 2018Article
- Defining the population attributable fraction for infectious diseases.International journal of epidemiology · 2017Article
- The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.PLoS medicine · 2016Article
- Data and methods to characterize the role of sex work and to inform sex work programs in generalized HIV epidemics: evidence to challenge assumptions.Annals of epidemiology · 2016Review
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe static Modes of Transmission (MOT) model predicts the annual fraction of new HIV infections acquired across subgroups (MOT metric), and is used to focus HIV prevention. Using synthetic epidemics via a dynamical model, we assessed the validity of the MOT metric for identifying epidemic drivers (behaviours or subgroups that are sufficient and necessary for HIV to establish and persist), and the potential consequence of MOT-guided policies. METHODS AND
findingsTo generate benchmark MOT metrics for comparison, we simulated three synthetic epidemics (concentrated, mixed, and generalized) with different epidemic drivers using a dynamical model of heterosexual HIV transmission. MOT metrics from generic and complex MOT models were compared against the benchmark, and to the contribution of epidemic drivers to overall HIV transmission (cumulative population attributable fraction over t years, PAFt). The complex MOT metric was similar to the benchmark, but the generic MOT underestimated the fraction of infections in epidemic drivers. The benchmark MOT metric identified epidemic drivers early in the epidemics. Over time, the MOT metric did not identify epidemic drivers. This was not due to simplified MOT models or biased parameters but occurred because the MOT metric (irrespective of the model used to generate it) underestimates the contribution of epidemic drivers to HIV transmission over time (PAF5-30). MOT-directed policies that fail to reach epidemic drivers could undermine long-term impact on HIV incidence, and achieve a similar impact as random allocation of additional resources.
conclusionsIrrespective of how it is obtained, the MOT metric is not a valid stand-alone tool to identify epidemic drivers, and has limited additional value in guiding the prioritization of HIV prevention targets. Policy-makers should use the MOT model judiciously, in combination with other approaches, to identify epidemic drivers.
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