Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24982155›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014

Realized niche shift during a global biological invasion.

Reid Tingley, Marcelo Vallinoto, Fernando Sequeira, Michael R Kearney

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
91citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

91 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Global drivers of the conservation-invasion paradox.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Forecasting alien species establishment and source regions: Quantitative assessment of potential ant invasions in Japan.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Reid TingleySchool of Botany, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia; reid.tingley@unimelb.edu.au.
Marcelo VallinotoInstituto de Estudos Costeiros, Laboratório de Evolução, Universidade Federal do Pará, Campus de Bragança, CEP 68.600-000, Pará, Brasil;Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal; and.
Fernando SequeiraCentro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal; and.
Michael R KearneyDepartment of Zoology, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species' realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeEcosystemIntroduced SpeciesModels, BiologicalAnimalsAustraliaBufo marinusbiophysical modelBufo marinusMaxentrange shiftspecies distribution model

Identifiers

PMID24982155
PMCPMC4104887

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.