ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014
Multiannual forecasting of seasonal influenza dynamics reveals climatic and evolutionary drivers.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers.
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Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Physics-guided framework for climate dependent disease prediction: coupling compartment model with deep learning.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Climatic Influence on COVID-19: Investigating the Role of Temperature and Humidity in the Spread of the Omicron Variant.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Modeling the dynamics of seasonal influenza in response to meteorological conditions and antigenic variation: a simulation study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Avian influenza and One Health: bridging animal and human health through integrated surveillance and vaccination.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Review
- Unraveling the mechanism behind the probable extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage of influenza B viruses.Nature communications · 2025Article
- A Conceptual Disease Cycle Model to Link the Size of Past and Future Epidemics.Ecology and evolution · 2025Review
- The optimal strategy for seasonal influenza vaccination to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang, China: an integrated transmission-dynamic and health-economic modeling analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Design and evaluation of a poly-epitope based vaccine for the induction of influenza A virus cross-reactive CD8 + T cell responses.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Evolving Dynamics of Whole-Genome Influenza A/H3N2 Viruses Isolated in Cameroon.Advances in virology · 2025Article
- Increasing environmental fluctuations can dampen variability of endogenously cycling populations.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.Nature communications · 2024Article
- The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada.PLOS digital health · 2023Article
- National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2022-2023: Canada's first fall epidemic since the 2019-2020 season.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2023Article
- Effect of Rapid Urbanization in Mainland China on the Seasonal Influenza Epidemic: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surveillance Data From 2010 to 2017.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Human influenza occurs annually in most temperate climatic zones of the world, with epidemics peaking in the cold winter months. Considerable debate surrounds the relative role of epidemic dynamics, viral evolution, and climatic drivers in driving year-to-year variability of outbreaks. The ultimate test of understanding is prediction; however, existing influenza models rarely forecast beyond a single year at best. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model to reveal multiannual predictability based on high-quality influenza surveillance data for Israel; the model fit is corroborated by simple metapopulation comparisons within Israel. Successful forecasts are driven by temperature, humidity, antigenic drift, and immunity loss. Essentially, influenza dynamics are a balance between large perturbations following significant antigenic jumps, interspersed with nonlinear epidemic dynamics tuned by climatic forcing.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.