ArticlePloS one2014
Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic review on respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology in adults and the elderly in Latin America.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Pooled it
- The limitations of non-mechanistic methods for characterizing pathogen-pathogen interactions: A simulation study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Real-time prediction of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in primary care using the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Integrated pharmaceutical and behavioral strategies for long-term control of RSV transmission: An impulsive SEIRS-type modeling study.AIMS public health · 2026Article
- Trends and estimated costs of hospitalizations potentially associated with respiratory syncytial virus among children in Brazil, 2014-2025.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2026Article
- Modelling immunity gaps to quantify infection resurgences.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Mathematical Modeling of Influenza Dynamics: Integrating Seasonality and Gradual Waning Immunity.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Efficacy of monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccination for prophylaxis of respiratory syncytial virus disease.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Modelling respiratory syncytial virus age-specific risk of hospitalisation in term and preterm infants.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in Western Australia prior to implementation of SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- Prophylaxis protects infants with congenital heart disease from severe forms of RSV infection: an Italian observational retrospective study : Palivizumab prophylaxis in children with congenital heart disease.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2023Observational
- Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Review
- Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- A Multivariate Age-Structured Stochastic Model with Immunization Strategies to Describe Bronchiolitis Dynamics.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Competition between RSV and influenza: Limits of modelling inference from surveillance data.Epidemics · 2021Article
- UV, ozone, and COVID-19 transmission in Ontario, Canada using generalised linear models.Environmental research · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of paediatric morbidity. Mathematical models can be used to characterise annual RSV seasonal epidemics and are a valuable tool to assess the impact of future vaccines.
objectivesConstruct a mathematical model of seasonal epidemics of RSV and by fitting to a population-level RSV dataset, obtain a better understanding of RSV transmission dynamics.
methodsWe obtained an extensive dataset of weekly RSV testing data in children aged less than 2 years, 2000-2005, for a birth cohort of 245,249 children through linkage of laboratory and birth record datasets. We constructed a seasonally forced compartmental age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) mathematical model to fit to the seasonal curves of positive RSV detections using the Nelder-Mead method.
resultsFrom 15,830 specimens, 3,394 were positive for RSV. RSV detections exhibited a distinct biennial seasonal pattern with alternating sized peaks in winter months. Our SEIRS model accurately mimicked the observed data with alternating sized peaks using disease parameter values that remained constant across the 6 years of data. Variations in the duration of immunity and recovery periods were explored. The best fit to the data minimising the residual sum of errors was a model using estimates based on previous models in the literature for the infectious period and a slightly lower estimate for the immunity period.
conclusionsOur age-structured model based on routinely collected population laboratory data accurately captures the observed seasonal epidemic curves. The compartmental SEIRS model, based on several assumptions, now provides a validated base model. Ranges for the disease parameters in the model that could replicate the patterns in the data were identified. Areas for future model developments include fitting climatic variables to the seasonal parameter, allowing parameters to vary according to age and implementing a newborn vaccination program to predict the effect on RSV incidence.
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