ArticlePloS one2014
Future declines of coronary heart disease mortality in England and Wales could counter the burden of population ageing.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Current and Future Cost Burden of Myocardial Infarction in Australia: Dynamic Multistate Markov Model.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Forecasting Ischemic Heart Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease Mortality in Brazil Through 2040: A Bayesian Modeling Approach.Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia · 2025Article
- Forecasting cardiovascular disease mortality using artificial neural networks in Sindh, Pakistan.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Bayesian Model Projecting Cardiovascular Disease Related Mortality Trends in the United States.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024Article
- Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038.European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes · 2024Article
- Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.Neuroepidemiology · 2024Article
- Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- A likelihood ratio test on temporal trends in age-period-cohort models with applications to the disparities of heart disease mortality among US populations and comparison with Japan.Statistics in medicine · 2021Article
- ISCHEMIA Trial: Key Questions and Answers.European cardiology · 2021Review
- Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee-Carter Model.Studies on Russian economic development · 2021Article
- Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2020Article
- Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.BMJ open · 2019Article
- Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study.Public health nutrition · 2018Article
- The economic benefits of reducing cardiovascular disease mortality in Quebec, Canada.PloS one · 2018Article
- Effects of reducing processed culinary ingredients and ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian diet: a cardiovascular modelling study.Public health nutrition · 2018Article
- Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2017Article
- Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2017Article
- New challenges of geriatric cardiology: from clinical to preclinical research.Journal of geriatric cardiology : JGC · 2017Article
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCoronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions.
methodsIn scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012-2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002-2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values.
resultsIn scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030.
conclusionsThe decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented.
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