ArticleParasites & vectors2014
Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 67 citations in OpenAlex.
- Safety of oral ivermectin during pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2020Pooled it
- Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2019Pooled it
- Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Parasites & vectors · 2016Pooled it
- Effect of a single dose of 8 mg moxidectin or 150 μg/kg ivermectin on O. volvulus skin microfilariae in a randomized trial: Differences between areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia and Ghana and impact of intensity of infection.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Trial
- Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of mass drug administration with ivermectin or moxidectin on human onchocerciasis when there is sub-optimal response of parasites to treatment.Research square · 2026Article
- Evolution of Ivermectin Resistance in the Nematode ModelEvolutionary applications · 2026Article
- Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Mass drug administration coverage and its determinants for the elimination of onchocerciasis in Ulanga District, Tanzania.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Onchocerciasis is not a major cause of blindness in two endemic villages in Sierra Leone.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Association of haemato-biochemical indices and blood composite ratios with microfilaridermia in Onchocerciasis patients.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Review
- AssessingPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Application of loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assays for the detection ofFrontiers in tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Epidemiology and Control of Opisthorchis viverrini Infection: Implications for Cholangiocarcinoma Prevention.Recent results in cancer research. Fortschritte der Krebsforschung. Progres dans les recherches sur le cancer · 2023Article
- How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Status of parasitological indicators and morbidity burden of onchocerciasis after years of successive implementation of mass distribution of ivermectin in selected communities of Yeki and Asosa districts, Ethiopia.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Assessing Onchocerciasis Subcriticality from Pre-Intervention Cross-Sectional Surveys.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness.Scientific reports · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15-17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020-2025.
methodsA novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.
resultsCurrent onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.
conclusionsThe goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.