ArticleMalaria journal2014
Characterizing the effect of temperature fluctuation on the incidence of malaria: an epidemiological study in south-west China using the varying coefficient distributed lag non-linear model.
Article in Malaria journal, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Transfusion-transmitted malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Plasmodium spp. carriage in blood units and confirmed transmission in recipient.Malaria journal · 2026Pooled it
- Differences of Rainfall-Malaria Associations in Lowland and Highland in Western Kenya.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Pooled it
- Climatic drivers of the 2024 malaria outbreak in two neighbouring districts in northeastern India and its corridor: The indirect role of El Niño.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Association between persistent organic pollutants and malaria incidence in mainland China: a population-based surveillance and modeling analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013-2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Air temperature estimation and modeling using data driven techniques based on best subset regression model in Egypt.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Modelling the impact of climatic and environmental variables on malaria incidence in Tanzania: Implications for achieving the WHO's 2030 Targets.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- A novel method to select time-varying multivariate time series models for the surveillance of infectious diseases.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Modeling the shared risks of malaria and anemia in Rwanda.PloS one · 2024Article
- Understanding the fine-scale heterogeneity and spatial drivers of malaria transmission in Kenya using model-based geostatistical methods.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Dengue Meteorological Determinants during Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Periods in Taiwan.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Interactive Effects Between Temperature and PMChina CDC weekly · 2022Article
- Effect of temperature and its interactions with relative humidity and rainfall on malaria in a temperate city Suzhou, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Article
- Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Variation of prevalence of malaria, parasite density and the multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infection throughout the year at three different health centers in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Seasonal variation of malaria cases in children aged less than 5 years old following weather change in Zomba district, Malawi.Malaria journal · 2017Article
- Extending the Distributed Lag Model framework to handle chemical mixtures.Environmental research · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMalaria transmission is strongly determined by the environmental temperature and the environment is rarely constant. Therefore, mosquitoes and parasites are not only exposed to the mean temperature, but also to daily temperature variation. Recently, both theoretical and laboratory work has shown, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature can affect essential mosquito and parasite traits that determine malaria transmission intensity. However, so far there is no epidemiological evidence at the population level to this problem.
methodsThirty counties in southwest China were selected, and corresponding weekly malaria cases and weekly meteorological variables were collected from 2004 to 2009. Particularly, maximum, mean and minimum temperatures were collected. The daily temperature fluctuation was measured by the diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between the maximum and minimum temperature. The distributed lag non-linear model (MDLNM) was used to study the correlation between weekly malaria incidences and weekly mean temperatures, and the correlation pattern was allowed to vary over different levels of daily temperature fluctuations.
resultsThe overall non-linear patterns for mean temperatures are distinct across different levels of DTR. When under cooler temperature conditions, the larger mean temperature effect on malaria incidences is found in the groups of higher DTR, suggesting that large daily temperature fluctuations act to speed up the malaria incidence in cooler environmental conditions. In contrast, high daily fluctuations under warmer conditions will lead to slow down the mean temperature effect. Furthermore, in the group of highest DTR, 24-25°C or 21-23°C are detected as the optimal temperature for the malaria transmission.
conclusionThe environment is rarely constant, and the result highlights the need to consider temperature fluctuations as well as mean temperatures, when trying to understand or predict malaria transmission. This work may be the first epidemiological study confirming that the effect of the mean temperature depends on temperature fluctuations, resulting in relevant evidence at the population level.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.