Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24865774›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2014

A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins.

Gemma V Clucas, Michael J Dunn, Gareth Dyke, Steven D Emslie, Ron Naveen, Michael J Polito, Oliver G Pybus, Alex D Rogers, Tom Hart

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed
9.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 111 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Gemma V Clucas1] Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK [2] Department of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
Michael J DunnBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK.
Gareth DykeOcean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
Steven D EmslieDepartment of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA.
Ron NaveenOceanites Inc, PO Box 15259, Chevy Chase, MD 20825, USA.
Michael J PolitoBiology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA.
Oliver G PybusDepartment of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
Alex D RogersDepartment of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
Tom HartDepartment of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
British Antarctic Survey · GBNational Oceanography Centre · GBOceanites · USUniversity of North Carolina Wilmington · USUniversity of Southampton · GBU.S. Air Force Institute of Technology · USWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionClimate ChangeAcclimatizationAnimalsAntarctic RegionsGenetic FitnessSpheniscidae

Identifiers

PMID24865774
PMCPMC4034736
OpenAlexW2122611411

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.