Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24857371›Full record

ArticlePreventive veterinary medicine2014

Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms.

Simon Gubbins, Joanne Turner, Matthew Baylis, Yves van der Stede, Gerdien van Schaik, José Cortiñas Abrahantes, Anthony J Wilson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Preventive veterinary medicine, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  12. A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Simon GubbinsThe Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK. Electronic address: simon.gubbins@pirbright.ac.uk.
Joanne TurnerDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Chester High Road, Neston, Cheshire CH64 7TE, UK.
Matthew BaylisDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Chester High Road, Neston, Cheshire CH64 7TE, UK.
Yves van der StedeUnit of Co-ordination Veterinary Diagnosis-Epidemiology and Risk Assessment, CODA-CERVA, Groeselenberg 99, 1180 Brussels, Belgium; Department of Virology, Parasitology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium.
Gerdien van SchaikGD Animal Health, Arnsbergstraat 7, 7413EZ Deventer, The Netherlands.
José Cortiñas AbrahantesEuropean Food Safety Authority, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma, Italy.
Anthony J WilsonThe Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BBS/E/I/00001409
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3-4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3°C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale.

Indexed as

OrthobunyavirusAgricultureAnimalsBayes TheoremBelgiumBunyaviridae InfectionsCattleCattle DiseasesCeratopogonidaeInsect VectorsNetherlandsSeroepidemiologic StudiesSheepSheep DiseasesApproximate Bayesian computationEpidemiologyModellingSBVVector-borne disease

Identifiers

PMID24857371
PMCPMC4204990

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.