ArticlePloS one2014
Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Inferring HIV transmission patterns from viral deep-sequence data via latent typed point processes.Biometrics · 2024Article
- Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis.Population health metrics · 2022Article
- Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.Statistical methods in medical research · 2019Article
- A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality.Demography · 2019Article
- Age distribution, trends, and forecasts of under-5 mortality in 31 sub-Saharan African countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2019Observational
- Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Population studies · 2018Article
- A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates.PloS one · 2018Article
- Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.Global health action · 2014Article
- Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic.Demographic researchArticle
- Jointly Estimating Subnational Mortality for Multiple Populations.Demographic researchArticle
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. METHODS AND
findingsThe model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.
conclusionsWe present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and demographic models, this model makes it possible to project future age-specific mortality profiles and number of deaths for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
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