ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2014
Health and economic benefits of early vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions for a human influenza A (H7N9) pandemic: a modeling study.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Next-generation vaccines for influenza B virus: advancements and challenges.Archives of virology · 2025Review
- Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Implemented to Control the COVID-19 Were Associated With Reduction of Influenza Incidence.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions related to social distancing on respiratory viral infectious disease outcomes: A rapid evidence-based review and meta-analysis.SAGE open medicine · 2021Review
- Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2020Review
- Antiviral Activity of Chicken Cathelicidin B1 Against Influenza A Virus.Frontiers in microbiology · 2020Article
- Recent progress in the antiviral activity and mechanism study of pentacyclic triterpenoids and their derivatives.Medicinal research reviews · 2018Review
- A methodological framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems: a case study of England.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Avian influenza surveillance in Central and West Africa, 2010-2014.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundVaccination for the 2009 pandemic did not occur until late in the outbreak, which limited its benefits. Influenza A (H7N9) is causing increasing morbidity and mortality in China, and researchers have modified the A (H5N1) virus to transmit via aerosol, which again heightens concerns about pandemic influenza preparedness.
objectiveTo determine how quickly vaccination should be completed to reduce infections, deaths, and health care costs in a pandemic with characteristics similar to influenza A (H7N9) and A (H5N1).
designDynamic transmission model to estimate health and economic consequences of a severe influenza pandemic in a large metropolitan city. DATA SOURCES: Literature and expert opinion. TARGET POPULATION: Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city with characteristics similar to New York City. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal.
interventionVaccination of 30% of the population at 4 or 6 months. OUTCOME MEASURES: Infections and deaths averted and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: In 12 months, 48 254 persons would die. Vaccinating at 9 months would avert 2365 of these deaths. Vaccinating at 6 months would save 5775 additional lives and $51 million at a city level. Accelerating delivery to 4 months would save an additional 5633 lives and $50 million. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: If vaccination were delayed for 9 months, reducing contacts by 8% through nonpharmaceutical interventions would yield a similar reduction in infections and deaths as vaccination at 4 months. LIMITATION: The model is not designed to evaluate programs targeting specific populations, such as children or persons with comorbid conditions.
conclusionVaccination in an influenza A (H7N9) pandemic would need to be completed much faster than in 2009 to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Maximizing non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially mitigate the pandemic until a matched vaccine becomes available. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.
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