SynthesisPloS one2014
The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.
Synthesis in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 80 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
80 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Lessons from past pandemics: a systematic review of evidence-based, cost-effective interventions to suppress COVID-19.Systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Impact of COVID-19 on School Populations and Associated Factors: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Consequences of Social Distancing Measures During the COVID-19 Pandemic First Wave on the Epidemiology of Children Admitted to Pediatric Emergency Departments and Pediatric Intensive Care Units: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2022Pooled it
- School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review.The Lancet. Child & adolescent health · 2020Pooled it
- Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2018Pooled it
- Multi-source agent-based modeling to optimize influenza mitigation strategies in Hong Kong.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of infectious disease outbreaks in schools in Zhejiang province, China, from 2013 to 2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control influenza spread among children in primary school and kindergarten: class-suspension or symptom-based isolation?BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Persistence and Variation of the Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Spectrum of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Analysis of National Surveillance Among Children and Adolescents From 2018 to 2021.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Analysis of factors influencing influenza outbreaks in schools in Taicang City, China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Effect of planned school breaks on student absenteeism due to influenza-like illness in school aged children-Oregon School District, Wisconsin September 2014-June 2019.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Influenza in Children and Adolescents: Epidemiology, Management, and Prevention.Pediatrics in review · 2023Article
- Epidemiology of Paediatric Trauma During National Lockdown: A Retrospective Study With 12 Months of Follow-Up.Cureus · 2023Article
- Inferring school district learning modalities during the COVID-19 pandemic with a hidden Markov model.PloS one · 2023Article
- Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in German secondary schools from October 2020 to July 2021: a longitudinal study.Infection · 2022Article
- Assessing the effect of school closures on the spread of COVID-19 in Zurich.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
- Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection among staff and students in a cohort of English primary and secondary schools during 2020-2021.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Article
- A Qualitative Study Evaluating the Factors Affecting Families' Adherence to the First COVID-19 Lockdown in England Using the COM-B Model and TDF.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSchool closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies.
objectivesTo systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies.
methodsWe searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns.
resultsSchool closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20-60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns.
conclusionsSimulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.