ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2014
The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
62 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Influence of Host and Landscape-Associated Factors in the Infection and Transmission of Pathogens: The Case of Directly Transmitted Virus in Mammals.Veterinary medicine and science · 2025Pooled it
- Temporal and spatial limitations in global surveillance for bat filoviruses and henipaviruses.Biology letters · 2019Pooled it
- When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Article
- Effects of Seasonal Births and Predation on Disease Spread.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Cohorts of immature Pteropus bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- A general framework for modeling pathogen transmission in co-roosting host communities.Ecology · 2026Article
- Assessing Ebola virus circulation in the Tshuapa province (Democratic Republic of the Congo): A One Health investigation of wildlife and human interactions.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- Boom-Bust Cycles Constrain Host-Parasite Dynamics, Suppress Parasite Spread, and Drive Parasites Extinct.The American naturalist · 2025Article
- Landscape-scale analysis of raccoon rabies surveillance reveals different drivers of disease dynamics across latitude.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Improved effectiveness of vaccination campaigns against rabies by reducing spatial heterogeneity in coverage.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- High astrovirus diversity in an endemic bat species suggests multiple spillovers from synanthropic rodents and birds.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- Rodent control strategies and Lassa virus: some unexpected effects in Guinea, West Africa.Emerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West AfricanJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- African swine fever in wild boar: investigating model assumptions and structure.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Bartonella infections are prevalent in rodents despite efficient immune responses.Parasites & vectors · 2023Article
- Optimizing the delivery of self-disseminating vaccines in fluctuating wildlife populations.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus inProceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Synchronicity of viral shedding in molossid bat maternity colonies.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.