SynthesisAIDS (London, England)2014
Estimating per-act HIV transmission risk: a systematic review.
Synthesis in AIDS (London, England), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 407 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
407 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Updated Meta-Analysis.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Pooled it
- Antiretroviral Postexposure Prophylaxis After Sexual, Injection Drug Use, or Other Nonoccupational Exposure to HIV - CDC Recommendations, United States, 2025.MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports · 2025Guideline
- Men who have sex with men perceiving that sex with women carries the greatest risk of HIV acquisition: results from a mixed-methods systematic review in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Pooled it
- Perceived risk for HIV acquisition and sexual HIV exposure among sexual and gender minorities: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Sexually Transmitted Infections Treatment Guidelines, 2021.MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports · 2021Guideline
- Association of schistosomiasis and HIV infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Injection Drug Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors Among People who Inject Drugs in Ukraine: A Random-Intercept Latent Transition Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Trial
- Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Trial
- Assessing the Reliability of Self-Reported Sexual Behavior Among Male Couples.Archives of sexual behavior · 2021Trial
- Rapid Collection of Human Rectal Secretions Using OriCol Devices Is Suitable for Measurement of Mucosal Ig without Blood Contamination.Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950) · 2020Trial
- Gender-responsive infectious disease models: Guidelines and systematic scoping review.Dialogues in health · 2026Review
- Predictive Models to Identify Factors Associated with a High One-Time Sexual Partnership Rate Among U.S. Men Who Have Sex with Men.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- The genomic sequence of packaged viral ribonucleic acid predicts mucosal HIV-1 transmission fitness.iScience · 2026Article
- Varied Knowledge of HIV Transmission and Prevention Among Gay, Bisexual, and Heterosexual Men Who Have Sex with Men in Australia: Results of a National Online Survey.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Modeling Analysis.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- HIV Transmission and Immunology of the Male Reproductive Tract.American journal of reproductive immunology (New York, N.Y. : 1989) · 2026Review
- Special Issue: New Horizons in HIV and Reproductive Health Research: HIV Acquisition and Reproductive Health in Key Populations.American journal of reproductive immunology (New York, N.Y. : 1989) · 2026Review
- Anaerobe-Driven Inflammation and Epithelial Barrier Disruption in Genital HIV Acquisition.American journal of reproductive immunology (New York, N.Y. : 1989) · 2026Review
- Dissecting the steps in early simian immunodeficiency virus dissemination following mucosal and intravenous infection of rhesus macaques.Journal of virology · 2026Article
347 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEffective HIV prevention programs rely on accurate estimates of the per-act risk of HIV acquisition from sexual and parenteral exposures. We updated the previous risk estimates of HIV acquisition from parenteral, vertical, and sexual exposures, and assessed the modifying effects of factors including condom use, male circumcision, and antiretroviral therapy.
methodsWe conducted literature searches to identify new studies reporting data regarding per-act HIV transmission risk and modifying factors. Of the 7339 abstracts potentially related to per-act HIV transmission risk, three meta-analyses provided pooled per-act transmission risk probabilities and two studies provided data on modifying factors. Of the 8119 abstracts related to modifying factors, 15 relevant articles, including three meta-analyses, were included. We used fixed-effects inverse-variance models on the logarithmic scale to obtain updated estimates of certain transmission risks using data from primary studies, and employed Poisson regression to calculate relative risks with exact 95% confidence intervals for certain modifying factors.
resultsRisk of HIV transmission was greatest for blood transfusion, followed by vertical exposure, sexual exposures, and other parenteral exposures. Sexual exposure risks ranged from low for oral sex to 138 infections per 10,000 exposures for receptive anal intercourse. Estimated risks of HIV acquisition from sexual exposure were attenuated by 99.2% with the dual use of condoms and antiretroviral treatment of the HIV-infected partner.
conclusionThe risk of HIV acquisition varied widely, and the estimates for receptive anal intercourse increased compared with previous estimates. The risk associated with sexual intercourse was reduced most substantially by the combined use of condoms and antiretroviral treatment of HIV-infected partners.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.