Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24758323›Full record

ArticleActa orthopaedica2014

Projections of total hip replacement in Sweden from 2013 to 2030.

Szilárd Nemes, Max Gordon, Cecilia Rogmark, Ola Rolfson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Acta orthopaedica, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 84 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
84citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

84 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  13. Diabetes, Inflammatory Markers, and Tissue Thickness in Septic and Aseptic Hip Revision Surgeries.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025
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24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Szilárd NemesThe Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register, Gothenburg.
Max Gordon
Cecilia Rogmark
Ola Rolfson

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

background and purposeThe continuously increasing demand for joint replacement surgery in the past decades imposes higher constraints on the budgets of hospitals and healthcare providers. We undertook an analysis of historical trends in total hip replacement performed in Sweden between 1968 and 2012 in order to provide projections of future demand. DATA AND

methodsWe obtained data on total hip replacements registered every year and on the evolution of the Swedish population between 1968 and 2012. We assumed the existence of a maximum incidence. So we adopted a regression framework that assumes the existence of an upper limit of total hip replacement incidence.

resultsWe found that the incidence of total hip replacement will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 400 total hip replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be reached around the year 2107. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total hip replacement will be 341 (95% prediction interval (PI): 302-375) and in 2030 it will be 358 (PI: 317-396). Using official forecasted population growth data, about 18,000 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and 20,000 would be expected to be performed in 2030.

interpretationGrowing incidence, population growth, and increasing life expectancy will probably result in increased demand for hip replacement surgery. Our findings could serve as a basis for decision making.

Indexed as

ForecastingAdultAgedAged, 80 and overArthroplasty, Replacement, HipFemaleHumansIncidenceLife ExpectancyMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalOsteoarthritis, HipRegistriesRetrospective StudiesSweden

Identifiers

PMID24758323
PMCPMC4062789

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.