ArticlePloS one2014
Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Infectious diarrheal disease caused by contaminated well water in Chinese schools: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of epidemiology · 2017Pooled it
- Evaluating the effects of control interventions and estimating the inapparent infections for dengue outbreak in Hangzhou, China.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Estimating the transmissibility of the 2025 chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan, China: a modelling study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- An Outbreak of Multidrug-ResistantTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Article
- Molecular Mechanisms ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2023Review
- Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- ComputingInfectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Review of fractional epidemic models.Applied mathematical modelling · 2021Review
- Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Study of Risk Factors for Total Attack Rate and Transmission Dynamics of Norovirus Outbreaks, Jiangsu Province, China, From 2012 to 2018.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 - 2017.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of Coronavirus.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China.The Journal of international medical research · 2020Article
- Optimal Control of Shigellosis with Cost-Effective Strategies.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2020Article
- Incidence dynamics and investigation of key interventions in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR) of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65-92.80) and duration of outbreak (DO) of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention "Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection" was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97-47.04%) and shortest DO (28 days). Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control.
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