SynthesisBMC medicine2014
Formal and informal prediction of recurrent stroke and myocardial infarction after stroke: a systematic review and evaluation of clinical prediction models in a new cohort.
Synthesis in BMC medicine, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prognostic models for complete recovery in ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC neurology · 2018Pooled it
- Matrix Gla protein polymorphism rs1800801 associates with recurrence of ischemic stroke.PloS one · 2020Trial
- Targeting Pioglitazone Hydrochloride Therapy After Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack According to Pretreatment Risk for Stroke or Myocardial Infarction.JAMA neurology · 2017Trial
- Hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: neuroimaging biomarkers, radiomics-based prediction models, and clinical translation.Frontiers in human neuroscience · 2026Review
- The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Development and internal validation of machine learning-based models and external validation of existing risk scores for outcome prediction in patients with ischaemic stroke.European heart journal. Digital health · 2024Article
- Early detection of small volume stroke and thromboembolic sources with computed tomography: Rationale and design of the ENCLOSE study.European stroke journal · 2020Article
- Serum beta2-microglobulin levels are highly associated with the risk of acute ischemic stroke.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Empirical evidence of the impact of study characteristics on the performance of prediction models: a meta-epidemiological study.BMJ open · 2019Review
- Serum β2-Microglobulin Is Closely Associated With the Recurrence Risk and 3-Month Outcome of Acute Ischemic Stroke.Frontiers in neurology · 2019Article
- Article
- [Prediction in cerebrovascular diseases].Der Nervenarzt · 2014Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe objective of this study was to: (1) systematically review the reporting and methods used in the development of clinical prediction models for recurrent stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) after ischemic stroke; (2) to meta-analyze their external performance; and (3) to compare clinical prediction models to informal clinicians' prediction in the Edinburgh Stroke Study (ESS).
methodsWe searched Medline, EMBASE, reference lists and forward citations of relevant articles from 1980 to 19 April 2013. We included articles which developed multivariable clinical prediction models for the prediction of recurrent stroke and/or MI following ischemic stroke. We extracted information to assess aspects of model development as well as metrics of performance to determine predictive ability. Model quality was assessed against a pre-defined set of criteria. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool performance metrics.
resultsWe identified twelve model development studies and eleven evaluation studies. Investigators often did not report effective sample size, regression coefficients, handling of missing data; typically categorized continuous predictors; and used data dependent methods to build models. A meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was possible for the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and for the Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II); the pooled AUROCCs were 0.60 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.62) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.64), respectively. An evaluation among minor stroke patients in the ESS demonstrated that clinicians discriminated poorly between those with and those without recurrent events and that this was similar to clinical prediction models.
conclusionsThe available models for recurrent stroke discriminate poorly between patients with and without a recurrent stroke or MI after stroke. Models had a similar discrimination to informal clinicians' predictions. Formal prediction may be improved by addressing commonly encountered methodological problems.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.