ArticlePloS one2014
Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for targeted testing of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Pooled it
- An HIV-1 Risk Assessment Tool for Men Aged 15-59 years in 13 African Countries: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Individual and population-level risk factors for new HIV infections among adults in Eastern and Southern Africa.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Feasibility and acceptability of peer-led assessment of HIV risk among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Brief Report: HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Awareness and Use Among Rakai Community Cohort Study Youth Aged 15-24.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Article
- The changing cost-effectiveness of primary HIV prevention: simple calculations of direct effects.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
- Article
- Machine learning prediction of adolescent HIV testing services in Ethiopia.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- HIV epidemiologic trends among occupational groups in Rakai, Uganda: A population-based longitudinal study, 1999-2016.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Predicting the Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Derivation of an HIV Risk Score for African Women Who Engage in Sex Work.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- HIV Incidence by Male Circumcision Status From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys-Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2021Article
- Use of machine learning techniques to identify HIV predictors for screening in sub-Saharan Africa.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Machine Learning to Identify Persons at High-Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Acquisition in Rural Kenya and Uganda.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Cell Phones, Sexual Behaviors and HIV Prevalence in Rakai, Uganda: A Cross Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Data.AIDS and behavior · 2020Article
- Development and external-validation of a nomogram for predicting the survival of hospitalised HIV/AIDS patients based on a large study cohort in western China.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- A nomogram to predict mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome at the early stage-A multicenter study in China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Narrating the Transition to Adulthood for Youth in Uganda: Leaving School, Mobility, Risky Occupations, and HIV.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionTargeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda.
methodsWe used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC) as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index). Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models.
resultsWe used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years,) and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years). The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73). The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70). Both models were well calibrated.
conclusionThese indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.