ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2014
Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.
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Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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43citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.6field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 70 citations in OpenAlex.
- Disease Progression in Barrett's Low-Grade Dysplasia With Radiofrequency Ablation Compared With Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2017Pooled it
- Community assembly modeling of the microbiome within Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.BMC genomics · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- The role of the fibroblast in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.Current opinion in gastroenterology · 2024Review
- Cancer Risk in Barrett's Esophagus: A Clinical Review.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Review
- A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data.Journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2023Article
- Endoscopic Screening Program for Control of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in Varied Populations: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Gastroenterology · 2022Article
- Utility and Cost-Effectiveness of a Nonendoscopic Approach to Barrett's Esophagus Surveillance After Endoscopic Therapy.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2022Article
- Trends and projections in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands: An age-period-cohort analysis from 1989 to 2041.International journal of cancer · 2022Article
- Challenges in Determining the Role of Microbiome Evolution in Barrett's Esophagus and Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Microorganisms · 2021Review
- Comparative Cost Effectiveness of Reflux-Based and Reflux-Independent Strategies for Barrett's Esophagus Screening.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2021Article
- Therapeutic Synergy in Esophageal Cancer and Mesothelioma Is Predicted by Dynamic BH3 Profiling.Molecular cancer therapeutics · 2021Article
- The Optimal Age to Stop Endoscopic Surveillance of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus Based on Sex and Comorbidity: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Gastroenterology · 2021Article
- Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling.Cancer research · 2021Article
- Article
- Study on the Selection of the Targets of Esophageal Carcinoma and Interventions of Ginsenosides Based on Network Pharmacology and Bioinformatics.Evidence-based complementary and alternative medicine : eCAM · 2020Article
- APE1 Upregulates MMP-14 via Redox-Sensitive ARF6-Mediated Recycling to Promote Cell Invasion of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Cancer research · 2019Article
- Esophageal cancer treatment costs by phase of care and treatment modality, 2000-2013.Cancer medicine · 2019Article
- Is Mass Screening for Barrett's Esophagus a Myth or Reality?Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2019Article
- Increasing prevalence of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma on index endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus over the past 2 decades: data from a multicenter U.S. consortium.Gastrointestinal endoscopy · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.
Chung Yin KongAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands joey@mgh-ita.org.
Sonja KroepAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Kit CurtiusAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
William D HazeltonAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Jihyoun JeonAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Rafael MezaAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Curtis R HeberleAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Melecia C MillerAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Sung Eun ChoiAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Iris Lansdorp-VogelaarAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Marjolein van BallegooijenAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Eric J FeuerAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
John M InadomiAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Chin HurAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the NetherlandsAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Depart
E Georg LuebeckAuthors' Affiliations: Institute for Technology Assessment; Gastrointestinal Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Applied Mathematics; Division of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington; Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics; Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Erasmus University Rotterdam · NLMassachusetts General Hospital · USUniversity of Michigan–Ann Arbor · USHarvard University · USErasmus MC · NLFred Hutch Cancer Center · USUniversity of Washington · US
Funding
Controlling Esophageal Cancer in the US.: A Colloraborative Modeling ProjectU01CA152926 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI HUR, CHIN, INADOMI, JOHN MATTHEW · 2010 to 2014
$3.9MImproving Gastrointestinal Disease Outcomes in Vulnerable PopulationsK24DK080941 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI INADOMI, JOHN MATTHEW · 2008 to 2019
$1.8MApplications of Multi-Criteria Optimization (AMCO) to Cancer Simulation ModelingK25CA133141 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI KONG, CHUNG YIN · 2009 to 2013
$844kNCI NIH HHS K25 CA133141NCI NIH HHS K25CA133141NCI NIH HHS U01 CA152926NCI NIH HHS U01CA152926NIDDK NIH HHS K24 DK080941
Abstract
backgroundThe incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased five-fold in the United States since 1975. The aim of our study was to estimate future U.S. EAC incidence and mortality and to shed light on the potential drivers in the disease process that are conduits for the dramatic increase in EAC incidence.
methodsA consortium of three research groups calibrated independent mathematical models to clinical and epidemiologic data including EAC incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 9) registry from 1975 to 2010. We then used a comparative modeling approach to project EAC incidence and mortality to year 2030.
resultsImportantly, all three models identified birth cohort trends affecting cancer progression as a major driver of the observed increases in EAC incidence and mortality. All models predict that incidence and mortality rates will continue to increase until 2030 but with a plateauing trend for recent male cohorts. The predicted ranges of incidence and mortality rates (cases per 100,000 person years) in 2030 are 8.4 to 10.1 and 5.4 to 7.4, respectively, for males, and 1.3 to 1.8 and 0.9 to 1.2 for females. Estimates of cumulative cause-specific EAC deaths between both sexes for years 2011 to 2030 range between 142,300 and 186,298, almost double the number of deaths in the past 20 years.
conclusionsThrough comparative modeling, the projected increases in EAC cases and deaths represent a critical public health concern that warrants attention from cancer control planners to prepare potential interventions. IMPACT: Quantifying this burden of disease will aid health policy makers to plan appropriate cancer control measures. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(6); 997-1006. ©2014 AACR.
Indexed as
AdenocarcinomaDisease ProgressionEsophageal NeoplasmsFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleModels, Theoretical
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