Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24677731›Full record

ArticleHealth economics2015

Smokers' strategic responses to sin taxes: evidence from panel data in Thailand.

Justin S White, Hana Ross

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Health economics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Justin S WhiteStanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Hana Ross

Funding

Project 3: Policy Effects on Cigarette Design, Emissions &BehaviorP50CA111236 · NCI · ROSWELL PARK CANCER INSTITUTE CORP · PI CUMMINGS, KENNETH MICHAEL · 2004 to 2009
$8.2M
International Tobacco Policy SurveyR01CA100362 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO · PI FONG, GEOFFREY T · 2005 to 2013
$4.7M
CIHR 79551NCI NIH HHS P50 CA111236NCI NIH HHS R01 CA100362
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In addition to quitting and cutting consumption, smokers faced with higher cigarette prices may compensate in several ways that mute the health impact of cigarette taxes. This study examines three price avoidance strategies among adult male smokers in Thailand: trading down to a lower-priced brand, buying individual sticks of cigarettes instead of packs, and substituting roll-your-own tobacco for factory-manufactured cigarettes. Using two panels of microlevel data from the International Tobacco Control Southeast Asia Study, collected in 2005 and 2006, we estimate the effects of a substantial excise tax increase implemented throughout Thailand in December 2005. We present estimates of the marginal effects and price elasticities for each of five consumer behaviors. We find that, controlling for baseline smoking characteristics, sociodemographics, and policy variables, quitting is highly sensitive to changes in cigarette prices, but so are brand choice, stick-buying, and use of roll-your-own tobacco. Neglecting such strategic responses leads to overestimates of a sin tax's health impact, and neglecting product substitution distorts estimates of the price elasticity of cigarette demand. We discuss the implications for consumer welfare and several policies that mitigate the adverse impact of consumer responses.

Indexed as

Choice BehaviorAdolescentAdultCommerceHumansMaleMiddle AgedMotivationResidence CharacteristicsSmokingSocioeconomic FactorsTaxesThailandTobacco ProductsYoung Adultcigarettescompensating behaviorprice effectsThailandtobacco taxation

Identifiers

PMID24677731
PMCPMC3989462

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.