Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24651836›Full record

ArticlePloS one2014

The construction of risk prediction models using GWAS data and its application to a type 2 diabetes prospective cohort.

Daichi Shigemizu, Testuo Abe, Takashi Morizono, Todd A Johnson, Keith A Boroevich, Yoichiro Hirakawa, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Yutaka Kiyohara, Michiaki Kubo, Yusuke Nakamura and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Daichi ShigemizuLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Testuo AbeLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Takashi MorizonoLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Todd A JohnsonLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Keith A BoroevichLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Yoichiro HirakawaDepartment of Environmental Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Toshiharu NinomiyaDepartment of Environmental Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; Department of Medicine and Clinical Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Yutaka KiyoharaDepartment of Environmental Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Michiaki KuboLaboratory for Genotyping Development, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Yusuke NakamuraHuman Genome Center, Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Shiro MaedaLaboratory for Endocrinology, Metabolism and Kidney Diseases, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.
Tatsuhiko TsunodaLaboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Various models using clinical and/or genetic risk factors have been developed for T2D risk prediction. However, analysis considering algorithms for genetic risk factor detection and regression methods for model construction in combination with interactions of risk factors has not been investigated. Here, using genotype data of 7,360 Japanese individuals, we investigated risk prediction models, considering the algorithms, regression methods and interactions. The best model identified was based on a Bayes factor approach and the lasso method. Using nine SNPs and clinical factors, this method achieved an area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.8057 on an independent test set. With the addition of a pair of interaction factors, the model was further improved (p-value 0.0011, AUC 0.8085). Application of our model to prospective cohort data showed significantly better outcome in disease-free survival, according to the log-rank trend test comparing Kaplan-Meier survival curves (p--value 2:09 x 10(-11)). While the major contribution was from clinical factors rather than the genetic factors, consideration of genetic risk factors contributed to an observable, though small, increase in predictive ability. This is the first report to apply risk prediction models constructed from GWAS data to a T2D prospective cohort. Our study shows our model to be effective in prospective prediction and has the potential to contribute to practical clinical use in T2D.

Indexed as

Genome-Wide Association StudyCase-Control StudiesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenotypeHumansJapanModels, StatisticalPolymorphism, Single NucleotideProspective StudiesReproducibility of ResultsRiskROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID24651836
PMCPMC3961382

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.