ReviewPLoS computational biology2014
The rise and fall of HIV in high-prevalence countries: a challenge for mathematical modeling.
Review in PLoS computational biology, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.EClinicalMedicine · 2021Article
- Overlap between harm reduction and HIV service utilisation among PWID in India: Implications for HIV combination prevention.The International journal on drug policy · 2018Article
- Measuring sexual behaviour in Malawi: a triangulation of three data collection instruments.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Genital inflammation undermines the effectiveness of tenofovir gel in preventing HIV acquisition in women.Nature medicine · 2018Article
- A signature for biological heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection?Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2017Article
- Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study.Virus evolution · 2016Article
- Factors Driving the HIV Epidemic in Southern Africa.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2016Review
- Reassessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: accounting for heterogeneity and study design with simulated cohorts.PLoS medicine · 2015Article
- HIV competition dynamics over sexual networks: first comer advantage conserves founder effects.PLoS computational biology · 2015Article
- Knowledge, attitude and practices regarding HIV/AIDS among adult fishermen in coastal areas of Karachi.BMC public health · 2014Article
- Conflicting Views in Narratives on HIV Transmission via Medical Care.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CareArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but direct evidence for behavior changes that would explain these declines is limited. Here, we look at the structure of current models and argue that the common "fixed risk per sexual contact" assumption favors the conclusion of substantial behavior changes. We argue that this assumption ignores reported non-linearities between exposure and risk. Taking this into account, we propose that some of the decline in HIV transmission may be part of the natural dynamics of the epidemic, and that several factors that have traditionally been ignored by modelers for lack of precise quantitative estimates may well hold the key to understanding epidemiologic trends.
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