ArticlePLoS currents2014
Distinguishing Between Reservoir Exposure and Human-to-Human Transmission for Emerging Pathogens Using Case Onset Data.
Article in PLoS currents, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Is there evidence of sustained human-mosquito-human transmission of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi? A systematic literature review.Malaria journal · 2022Pooled it
- Generalizing an outbreak cluster detection method for two groups: an application to rabies.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases.Theoretical population biology · 2020Article
- Opportunities and challenges for modelling epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics in a multihost, multiparasite system: Zoonotic hybrid schistosomiasis in West Africa.Evolutionary applications · 2018Article
- Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2017Review
- Article
- Article
- Potent protection against H5N1 and H7N9 influenza via childhood hemagglutinin imprinting.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2016Article
- A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Article
- Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Number and Mean Serial Interval of a Novel Pathogen in a Small, Well-Observed Discrete Population.PloS one · 2016Article
- The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Review
- Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014.Emerging infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.PLoS computational biology · 2015Article
- Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2015Review
- Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.Epidemics · 2015Article
- H7N9 T-cell epitopes that mimic human sequences are less immunogenic and may induce Treg-mediated tolerance.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2015Article
- Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.PloS one · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Pathogens such as MERS-CoV, influenza A/H5N1 and influenza A/H7N9 are currently generating sporadic clusters of spillover human cases from animal reservoirs. The lack of a clear human epidemic suggests that the basic reproductive number R0 is below or very close to one for all three infections. However, robust cluster-based estimates for low R0 values are still desirable so as to help prioritise scarce resources between different emerging infections and to detect significant changes between clusters and over time. We developed an inferential transmission model capable of distinguishing the signal of human-to-human transmission from the background noise of direct spillover transmission (e.g. from markets or farms). By simulation, we showed that our approach could obtain unbiased estimates of R0, even when the temporal trend in spillover exposure was not fully known, so long as the serial interval of the infection and the timing of a sudden drop in spillover exposure were known (e.g. day of market closure). Applying our method to data from the three largest outbreaks of influenza A/H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013, we found evidence that human-to-human transmission accounted for 13% (95% credible interval 1%-32%) of cases overall. We estimated R0 for the three clusters to be: 0.19 in Shanghai (0.01-0.49), 0.29 in Jiangsu (0.03-0.73); and 0.03 in Zhejiang (0.00-0.22). If a reliable temporal trend for the spillover hazard could be estimated, for example by implementing widespread routine sampling in sentinel markets, it should be possible to estimate sub-critical values of R0 even more accurately. Should a similar strain emerge with R0>1, these methods could give a real-time indication that sustained transmission is occurring with well-characterised uncertainty.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.