ArticlePLoS currents2014
Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence.
Article in PLoS currents, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- A data-parsimonious model for long-term risk assessments of West Nile virus spillover.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in northern greece, 2020-2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Clinical Spectrum of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease.The Neurohospitalist · 2020Article
- Article
- Review
- Weather-based forecasting of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Canada.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2019Article
- Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2019Article
- Review
- Factors associated with human West Nile virus infection in Ontario: a generalized linear mixed modelling approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Use of temperature to improve West Nile virus forecasts.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak.PLoS currents · 2017Article
- Development and validation of a climate-based ensemble prediction model for West Nile Virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York.Parasites & vectors · 2016Article
- Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004-2012.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2015Article
- Risk factors for West Nile virus infection and disease in populations and individuals.Expert review of anti-infective therapy · 2015Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.
Indexed as
Identifiers
24611126PMC3945055W4236125055What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.