ArticlePloS one2014
Alternative performance measures for prediction models.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Predicting Postoperative Complications in Older Patients Undergoing Head and Neck Microvascular Reconstruction Using the National Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculator.Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open · 2025Article
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- A Novel Inflammation-Based Risk Score Predicts Mortality in Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The Additive Anti-inflammatory Action for Aortopathy and Arteriopathy Score.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Innovations, quality & outcomes · 2022Article
- Circulating biomarker-based risk stratifications individualize arch repair strategy of acute Type A aortic dissection via the XGBoosting algorithm.European heart journal. Digital health · 2022Article
- Using random forest to identify longitudinal predictors of health in a 30-year cohort study.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Leveraging Decision Curve Analysis to Improve Clinical Application of Surgical Risk Calculators.The Journal of surgical research · 2021Article
- Common sampling and modeling approaches to analyzing readmission risk that ignore clustering produce misleading results.BMC medical research methodology · 2020Article
- Validation of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator for Patients with Early Gastric Cancer Treated with Laparoscopic Gastrectomy.Journal of gastric cancer · 2020Article
- Identifying unreliable predictions in clinical risk models.NPJ digital medicine · 2020Article
- Measures for evaluation of prognostic improvement under multivariate normality for nested and nonnested models.Statistics in medicine · 2019Article
- Metabolic Unhealthiness Increases the Likelihood of Having Metabolic Syndrome Components in Normoweight Young Adults.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Prediction of recidivism in a long-term follow-up of forensic psychiatric patients: Incremental effects of neuroimaging data.PloS one · 2019Article
- Joint modeling of multivariate longitudinal data and survival data in several observational studies of Huntington's disease.BMC medical research methodology · 2018Article
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2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers.
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