ArticlePloS one2014
Estimating oxygen needs for childhood pneumonia in developing country health systems: a new model for expecting the unexpected.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Leveraging multi-tier healthcare facility network simulations for capacity planning in a pandemic.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2023Article
- Oxygen saturation targets for adults with acute hypoxemia in low and lower-middle income countries: a scoping review with analysis of contextual factors.Frontiers in medicine · 2023Article
- Cost analysis and critical success factors of the use of oxygen concentrators versus cylinders in sub-divisional hospitals in Fiji.BMC health services research · 2021Article
- Levofloxacin: Insights Into Antibiotic Resistance and Product Quality.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2019Review
- Children's Oxygen Administration Strategies Trial (COAST): A randomised controlled trial of high flow versus oxygen versus control in African children with severe pneumonia.Wellcome open research · 2017Article
- A model for oxygen conservation associated with titration during pediatric oxygen therapy.PloS one · 2017Article
- Reservoir Cannulas for Pediatric Oxygen Therapy: A Proof-of-Concept Study.International journal of pediatrics · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPlanning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or 'demand' for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability.
methodsA discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons.
findingsOxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality.
conclusionA theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.