ReviewSexually transmitted infections2014
The dual impact of antiretroviral therapy and sexual behaviour changes on HIV epidemiologic trends in Uganda: a modelling study.
Review in Sexually transmitted infections, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Women's sexual scripting in the context of universal access to antiretroviral treatment-findings from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa.BMC women's health · 2021Trial
- Exploring the willingness toward HIV immediate test and treat among MSM in Nairobi and its environs: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2020Article
- Knowledge, attitudes and practices of health personnel of maternities in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in a sub-Saharan African region with high transmission rate: some solutions proposed.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2018Article
- Condom use in combination with ART can reduce HIV incidence and mortality of PLWHA among MSM: a study from Beijing, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Review
- Does antiretroviral therapy change partnership dynamics and HIV risk behaviours among HIV-infected adults.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- HIV prevalence and uptake of HIV/AIDS services among youths (15-24 Years) in fishing and neighboring communities of Kasensero, Rakai District, South Western Uganda.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Knowledge, attitudes and practices of contraception by HIV positive women followed in a Cameroon region with high illiteracy rate: a cross sectional study.The Pan African medical journal · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesAntiretroviral therapy (ART) availability in a population may influence risky sexual behaviour. We examine the potential impact of ART on the HIV epidemic, incorporating evidence for the impact that ART may have on risky sexual behaviour.
methodsA mathematical model, parameterised using site-specific data from Uganda and worldwide literature review, was used to examine the likely impact of ART on HIV epidemiologic trends. We varied assumptions about rates of initiating ART, and changes in sexual partner turnover rates.
resultsModelling suggests that ART will reduce HIV incidence over 20 years, and increase prevalence. Even in the optimistic scenario of ART enrollment beginning after just five months of infection (in HIV stage 2), prevalence is estimated to rise from a baseline of 10.5% and 8.3% among women and men, respectively, to at least 12.1% and 10.2%, respectively. It will rise further if sexual disinhibition occurs or infectiousness while on ART is slightly higher (2% female to male, rather than 0.5%). The conditions required for ART to reduce prevalence over this period are likely too extreme to be achievable. For example, if ART enrolment begins in HIV stage 1 (within the first 5 months of infection), and if risky sexual behaviour does not increase, then 3 of our 11 top fitting results estimate a potential drop in HIV prevalence by 2025. If sexual risk taking rises, it will have a large additional impact on expected HIV prevalence. Prevalence will rise despite incidence falling, because ART extends life expectancy.
conclusionsHIV prevalence will rise. Even small increases in partner turnover rates will lead to an additional substantial increase in HIV prevalence. Policy makers are urged to continue HIV prevention activities, including promoting sex education, and to be prepared for a higher than previously suggested number of HIV infected people in need of treatment.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.