ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2014
The potential effects of tobacco control in China: projections from the China SimSmoke simulation model.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- Situation, Impacts, and Future Challenges of Tobacco Control Policies for Youth: An Explorative Systematic Policy Review.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2019Pooled it
- Global burden of smoking-attributable digestive cancers from 1990 to 2021: insights from the Global Burden of Disease study.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- SimSmoke simulation models by educational status: past and future US trends and the potential role of policy.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- SimSmoke simulation models distinguished by race/ethnicity: past and future trends and the potential role of policy.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2025Article
- Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers.PloS one · 2024Article
- The trend of lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 and lymphoma incidence trend prediction from 2018 to 2035: a log-linear regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
- Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2023Article
- Clinical Benefit and Cost Effectiveness of Risk-Stratified Gastric Cancer Screening Strategies in China: A Modeling Study.PharmacoEconomics · 2022Article
- A call to ban the sale of tobacco products.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Benefit-to-harm ratio and cost-effectiveness of government-recommended gastric cancer screening in China: A modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- US Nicotine Vaping ProductInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2021Article
- The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.PloS one · 2021Article
- Cancer burden in China: trends, risk factors and prevention.Cancer biology & medicine · 2020Review
- Modelling the impact of menthol sales restrictions and retailer density reduction policies: insights from tobacco town Minnesota.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- Impact of a comprehensive tobacco control policy package on acute myocardial infarction and stroke hospital admissions in Beijing, China: interrupted time series study.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- 'Pro-tobacco propaganda': a case study of tobacco industry-sponsored elementary schools in China.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- Urgent Need to Ratify National Legislation Banning Smoking in Public Places.China CDC weekly · 2020Article
- Operational research to support equitable non-communicable disease policy in low-income and middle-income countries in the sustainable development era: a scoping review.BMJ global health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo use a computer simulation model to project the potential impact in China of tobacco control measures on smoking, as recommended by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), being fully implemented.
designModelling study.
settingChina. POPULATION: Males and females aged 15-74 years.
interventionIncremental impact of more complete implementation of WHO FCTC policies simulated using SimSmoke, a Markov computer simulation model of tobacco smoking prevalence, smoking attributable deaths, and the impact of tobacco control policies. Data on China's adult population, current and former smoking prevalence, initiation and cessation rates, and past policy levels were entered into SimSmoke in order to predict past smoking rates and to project future status quo rates. The model was validated by comparing predicted smoking prevalence with smoking prevalence measured in tobacco surveys from 1996-2010.
main outcome measuresProjected future smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths from 2013-50.
resultsStatus quo tobacco policy simulations projected a decline in smoking prevalence from 51.3% in 2015 to 46.5% by 2050 in males and from 2.1% to 1.3% in females. Of the individual FCTC recommended tobacco control policies, increasing the tobacco excise tax to 75% of the retail price was projected to be the most effective, incrementally reducing current smoking compared with the status quo by 12.9% by 2050. Complete and simultaneous implementation of all FCTC policies was projected to incrementally reduce smoking by about 40% relative to the 2050 status quo levels and to prevent approximately 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and 154 million life years lost by 2050.
conclusionsComplete implementation of WHO FCTC recommended policies would prevent more than 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths in China by 2050. Implementation of FCTC policies would alleviate a substantial portion of the tobacco related health burden that threatens to slow China's extraordinary gains in life expectancy and prosperity.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.