Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24533067›Full record

ArticlePloS one2014

Risk prediction model for colorectal cancer: National Health Insurance Corporation study, Korea.

Aesun Shin, Jungnam Joo, Hye-Ryung Yang, Jeongin Bak, Yunjin Park, Jeongseon Kim, Jae Hwan Oh, Byung-Ho Nam

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Adult-Attained Height and Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Cohort Study, Systematic Review, and Meta-Analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2022
    Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Risk Prediction Models for Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2016
    Pooled it
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2020
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Chemoprevention of Colorectal Cancer by Dietary Compounds.International journal of molecular sciences · 2018
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. [Multiple risk factors prediction models for high risk population of colorectal cancer].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2018
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Aesun ShinMolecular Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Jungnam JooBiometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Hye-Ryung YangBiometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Jeongin BakBiometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Yunjin ParkBiometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Jeongseon KimMolecular Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Jae Hwan OhCenter for Colorectal Cancer, National Cancer Center Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
Byung-Ho NamBiometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeIncidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer have been rapidly increasing in Korea during last few decades. Development of risk prediction models for colorectal cancer in Korean men and women is urgently needed to enhance its prevention and early detection.

methodsGender specific five-year risk prediction models were developed for overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, distal colon cancer, colon cancer and rectal cancer. The model was developed using data from a population of 846,559 men and 479,449 women who participated in health examinations by the National Health Insurance Corporation. Examinees were 30-80 years old and free of cancer in the baseline years of 1996 and 1997. An independent population of 547,874 men and 415,875 women who participated in 1998 and 1999 examinations was used to validate the model. Model validation was done by evaluating its performance in terms of discrimination and calibration ability using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow-type chi-square statistics.

resultsAge, body mass index, serum cholesterol, family history of cancer, and alcohol consumption were included in all models for men, whereas age, height, and meat intake frequency were included in all models for women. Models showed moderately good discrimination ability with C-statistics between 0.69 and 0.78. The C-statistics were generally higher in the models for men, whereas the calibration abilities were generally better in the models for women.

conclusionsColorectal cancer risk prediction models were developed from large-scale, population-based data. Those models can be used for identifying high risk groups and developing preventive intervention strategies for colorectal cancer.

Indexed as

Risk AssessmentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBody Mass IndexCalibrationColorectal NeoplasmsDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansInsurance, HealthMaleMiddle AgedProportional Hazards ModelsRegistriesRepublic of Korea

Identifiers

PMID24533067
PMCPMC3922771

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.