ArticleOsong public health and research perspectives2013
Forecasting the number of human immunodeficiency virus infections in the korean population using the autoregressive integrated moving average model.
Article in Osong public health and research perspectives, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Multidimensional Trends and AI-Based Forecasts of HIV Incidence in Korea, 1985-2024.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan 2010-2020 and Its Forecasting for the Next 10 Years.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2023Article
- Deep learning-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia.Process safety and environmental protection : transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Part B · 2021Article
- A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2020Article
- Article
- At the Nexus: How HIV-Related Immigration Policies Affect Foreign Nationals and Citizens in South Korea.Health and human rights · 2017Article
- Forecast analysis of any opportunistic infection among HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.BMC public health · 2016Article
- Article
- Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis C virus amongst blood donors in Libya: An investigation of providing a preventive strategy.World journal of virology · 2016Article
- Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014.BMC infectious diseases · 2016Article
- Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen, China.BMJ open · 2015Article
- Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.Medicine · 2015Article
- Changing patterns of HIV epidemic in 30 years in East Asia.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2014Review
- What is Next for HIV/AIDS in Korea?Osong public health and research perspectives · 2013Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesFrom the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
methodsHIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
resultsThe fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985-2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889-1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805-1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308-10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893-15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3).
conclusionBased on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000.
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