Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24523276›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2014

The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases.

Tamer Oraby, Vivek Thampi, Chris T Bauch

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 59 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
59citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

59 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. The impact of threshold decision mechanisms of collective behavior on disease spread.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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  19. Sociocultural determinants of global mask-wearing behavior.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Tamer OrabyDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, , Guelph, Ontario, Canada, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, , Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Vivek Thampi
Chris T Bauch

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical models that couple disease dynamics and vaccinating behaviour often assume that the incentive to vaccinate disappears if disease prevalence is zero. Hence, they predict that vaccine refusal should be the rule, and elimination should be difficult or impossible. In reality, countries with non-mandatory vaccination policies have usually been able to maintain elimination or very low incidence of paediatric infectious diseases for long periods of time. Here, we show that including injunctive social norms can reconcile such behaviour-incidence models to observations. Adding social norms to a coupled behaviour-incidence model enables the model to better explain pertussis vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2010, in both the vaccine-scare years and the years of high vaccine coverage. The model also illustrates how a vaccine scare can perpetuate suboptimal vaccine coverage long after perceived risk has returned to baseline, pre-vaccine-scare levels. However, at other model parameter values, social norms can perpetuate depressed vaccine coverage during a vaccine scare well beyond the time when the population's baseline vaccine risk perception returns to pre-scare levels. Social norms can strongly suppress vaccine uptake despite frequent outbreaks, as observed in some small communities. Significant portions of the parameter space also exhibit bistability, meaning long-term outcomes depend on the initial conditions. Depending on the context, social norms can either support or hinder immunization goals.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlModels, TheoreticalSocial ConformityCommunicable DiseasesDisease OutbreaksHumansIncidenceMass VaccinationPediatricsPrevalenceVaccinationbehaviour-incidence modeldecision-makingpaediatric immunizationpeer pressuresocial norms

Identifiers

PMID24523276
PMCPMC4078885

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.