Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24518518›Full record

ArticleNature communications2014

Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa.

Jamie T Griffin, Neil M Ferguson, Azra C Ghani

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 155 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
155citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
23.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

155 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 249 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Global patterns of submicroscopicThe Lancet. Microbe · 2021
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  5. Mosquito feeding behavior and how it influences residual malaria transmission across Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019
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95 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Jamie T GriffinMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Imperial College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council G1002284Medical Research Council MR/K010174/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252 (95% credible interval: 171-353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12-86%) of these cases would be observed through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdolescentAfrica South of the SaharaAge DistributionChildChild, PreschoolHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMalaria, FalciparumPrevalenceYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID24518518
PMCPMC3923296
OpenAlexW2076212031

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.