Trial reportPloS one2014
Time series analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease hospitalization in Zhengzhou: establishment of forecasting models using climate variables as predictors.
Trial report in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.
- Seroprevalence of Enterovirus 71 Antibody Among Children in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.The Pediatric infectious disease journal · 2015Pooled it
- The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiology and spatiotemporal analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Zhejiang province, China (2004-2023).Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Molecular Evolutionary Dynamics of Coxsackievirus A6 Causing Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease From 2021 to 2023 in China: Genomic Epidemiology Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Forecasting HFMD Cases Using Weather Variables and Google Search Queries in Sabah, Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The epidemiological characteristics of enterovirus infection before and after the use of enterovirus 71 inactivated vaccine in Kunming, China.Emerging microbes & infections · 2021Article
- Association between Meteorological Parameters and Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Mainland China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Iranian journal of public health · 2021Review
- Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Development and Validation of Diagnostic Models for Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Children.Disease markers · 2021Article
- Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Analysis and prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in China using Random Forest and XGBoost.PloS one · 2021Article
- Forecasting hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases using wavelet-based SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model.PloS one · 2021Article
- Applying Machine Learning Models with An Ensemble Approach for Accurate Real-Time Influenza Forecasting in Taiwan: Development and Validation Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Article
- Epidemiological features and time-series analysis of influenza incidence in urban and rural areas of Shenyang, China, 2010-2018.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Using Baidu index to nowcast hand-foot-mouth disease in China: a meta learning approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- The utility of LASSO-based models for real time forecasts of endemic infectious diseases: A cross country comparison.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2018Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability.International journal of biometeorology · 2018Article
- Application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model in forecasting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan, China.Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Medical sciences = Hua zhong ke ji da xue xue bao. Yi xue Ying De wen ban = Huazhong keji daxue xuebao. Yixue Yingdewen ban · 2017Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundLarge-scale outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred frequently and caused neurological sequelae in mainland China since 2008. Prediction of the activity of HFMD epidemics a few weeks ahead is useful in taking preventive measures for efficient HFMD control.
methodsSamples obtained from children hospitalized with HFMD in Zhengzhou, Henan, China, were examined for the existence of pathogens with reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from 2008 to 2012. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models for the weekly number of HFMD, Human enterovirus 71(HEV71) and CoxsackievirusA16 (CoxA16) associated HFMD were developed and validated. Cross correlation between the number of HFMD hospitalizations and climatic variables was computed to identify significant variables to be included as external factors. Time series modeling was carried out using multivariate SARIMA models when there was significant predictor meteorological variable.
results2932 samples from the patients hospitalized with HFMD, 748 were detected with HEV71, 527 with CoxA16 and 787 with other enterovirus (other EV) from January 2008 to June 2012. Average atmospheric temperature (T{avg}) lagged at 2 or 3 weeks were identified as significant predictors for the number of HFMD and the pathogens. SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)52 associated with T{avg} at lag 2 (T{avg}-Lag 2) weeks, SARIMA(0,1,2)(1,0,0)52 with T{avg}-Lag 2 weeks and SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)52 with T{avg}-Lag 3 weeks were developed and validated for description and predication the weekly number of HFMD, HEV71-associated HFMD, and Cox A16-associated HFMD hospitalizations.
conclusionSeasonal pattern of certain HFMD pathogens can be associated by meteorological factors. The SARIMA model including climatic variables could be used as an early and reliable monitoring system to predict annual HFMD epidemics.
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